中国区域1公里逐小时极大风实况分析产品研制
Development of a real-time wind gust product with 1-kilometre-per-hour resolution for China region
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摘要: 围绕全国天气预报、强对流(大风)监测预警服务等业务需求,本文采用逐小时的极大风风速观测资料与模式的小时阵风风速预报资料进行了质量控制、时空匹配等预处理,同时采用多重网格变分分析方法,将极大风风速观测场与模式预报的背景场进行融合,生成中国区域1km/1h极大风实况分析产品(V1.0)。该产品滞后5分钟更新,整体的独立检验RMSE为1.9m/s,非独立检验为0.7m/s。同时,不同风速范围下极大风产品的各误差指标大小有较大差异,随着风速增大、样本数及样本比率不断下降,产品的误差有较为明显地增大趋势,且准确率逐步降低,但融合产品能够有效提升极大风速的质量。其中,9级以上风速的准确率提高了近一倍(13.1%->24.8%),相对误差也明显变小(-35.8%->-26.0%)。该产品的研制可为灾害性大风、台风等防灾减灾与决策方面提供数据支撑。Abstract: According to the applications for weather forecast, strong convection monitoring and warning services, a 1km/1h wind gust product on China region was produced by using the hour-by-hour wind gust speed observations and model forecast data, which were adopt after the procedure of quality control, space-time matching and fusion analysis. This product is updated with a 5-minute lag with the overall RMSE is 1.9 m/s for the independent test and 0.7 m/s for the non-independent test. The results indicated the error of the product tends to increase obviously with the wind speed increasing, and the accuracy decrease continuously with the number of samples decreasing, but the quality of this product improve effectively comparing to the model prediction in high speed of wind gust. Among them, the accuracy of wind speeds above magnitude 9 has improved nearly doubled (13.1%->24.8%), and the relative error has become significantly smaller (-35.8%->-26.0%). The development of this product can support in disaster prevention and decision-making in respect of catastrophic gales and typhoons.