中国区域1千米逐时极大风实况分析产品研制

Development of a real-time hourly wind gust product at 1-km resolution over China

  • 摘要: 围绕全国天气预报、强对流(大风)监测预警服务等业务需求,文中对逐时极大风风速观测资料与模式小时阵风风速预报资料进行质量控制、时空匹配等预处理,同时采用多重网格变分分析方法,将极大风风速观测场与模式预报背景场进行融合,生成中国区域1 km/h极大风实况分析产品(V1.0)。该产品滞后5 min更新,整体的独立检验均方根误差为1.9 m/s,非独立检验均方根误差为0.68 m/s。不同风速极大风产品的评价指标有较大差异,随着风速增大,样本数不断下降,产品的误差有较明显增大趋势,且准确率逐步降低,但融合产品能够有效提升极大风速的数据质量。其中,9级以上风速的准确率提高了89.3%(13.1%—>24.8%),相对误差下降了27.4%(−35.8%—>−26.0%)。该产品的研制可为灾害性大风、台风等防范及与决策制定提供数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: To meet the need for weather forecasting, strong convection monitoring and warning services, a 1 km/h wind gust product across China has been produced using hourly wind gust observations and model forecast data. These data are adopted after the procedure of quality control, space-time matching and fusion analysis. This product is updated at a 5-minute lag with the overall RMSEs of 1.9 m/s for independent test and 0.68 m/s for the non-independent test. The results indicate that as the wind speed increases, the number of samples continuously declines, there is a relatively pronounced tendency for the product's error to rise, and the accuracy gradually decreases. However, the quality of this product improves effectively compared to model predictions of high speed of wind gusts. Specifically, the accuracy of wind speed above magnitude 9 has improved by 89.3% (13.1%—>24.8%), and the relative error has dropped significantly with a reduction ratio of about 27.4% (−35.8%—>−26.0%). The development of this product can support disaster mitigation and decision-making related to catastrophic gales and typhoons.

     

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