地表太阳辐射数据及长期变化

Surface solar radiation: Observation, data, and long-term variations

  • 摘要: 随着卫星观测技术的快速发展,人们对地球大气层顶能量收支的估计已经较为准确。然而,对地球表面能量收支的估算误差水平仍然比温室气体浓度上升导致的辐射强迫变化大1个数量级以上。在地球表面能量平衡估计的各个分量中,向下短波太阳辐射是最为重要的误差来源之一。因此,准确的地表太阳辐射(SSR)观测数据成为降低这种误差的关键。同时,SSR不仅是陆表过程模拟的重要驱动因子,也是可再生太阳光伏能源利用的重要指标,其长期变化也一直是众多领域科学家重点关注的科学问题之一。文中从现有SSR气候数据产品的对比入手,讨论了当前SSR长期变化中存在的偏差和不确定性问题,明晰了发展高质量SSR观测基准数据产品的重要性;在此基础上介绍了近年来基于迄今为止最为完整的SSR站点观测数据,系统考虑其存在的非均一性和抽样问题,对站点序列进行了系统的均一化处理,采用人工智能(AI)技术进行了重建,并对全球和区域SSR长期变化及其不确定水平进行估计等一系列工作。这些研究为全球和区域气候变化观测、检测归因和预测、预估等提供了新的证据;最后,对当前SSR数据和长期变化研究存在的问题和未来发展趋势进行了展望。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid development of satellite observation technology, relatively accurate estimates of the energy budget at the top of the earth’s atmosphere have become achievable. However, at the earth’s surface, the estimation error in the energy balance is still formidable. Among the various components contributing to the energy imbalance estimation at the earth’s surface, downward shortwave solar radiation, termed as surface solar radiation (SSR) herein,represents one of the most important sources of error. SSR is not only important for simulating land surface processes,but also serves as a key indicator for the utilization of renewable solar photovoltaic energy. Therefore, accurateobservation of SSR is crutial for surface energy balance calculation and related applications. At the same time, long-term variations of SSR have always been a major concern across various fields. This review starts with a comparison of existing SSR observational products, discusses the bias and uncertainty issues in the long-term variations of SSR,and clarifies the importance of developing high-quality SSR baseline data products. Then, the present paper introduces a series of studies in recent years, which, based on the most complete SSR station data to date, systematically examined the inhomogeneity and sampling problems, performed systematic homogenization processing and artificial intelligence (AI) reconstruction on station series, and estimated the long-term variations and uncertainty levels of SSRs at global and regional scales. These studies offer new evidence for global and regional climate change observation, detection, attribution, and future projection. Finally, the paper presents an outlook on the existing and future challenges in the research on SSR data and the SSR long-term variations.

     

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