地表太阳辐射数据及长期变化

Surface solar radiation data and its long-term variation

  • 摘要: 随着卫星观测技术的快速发展,人们对地球大气层顶能量收支的估计已经较为准确。然而,对地球表面能量收支的估算误差水平仍然比温室气体浓度上升导致的辐射强迫变化大1个数量级以上。在地球表面能量平衡估计的各个分量中,向下短波太阳辐射是最为重要的误差来源之一。因此,准确的地表太阳辐射(SSR)观测数据成为降低这种误差的关键。同时,SSR不仅是陆表过程模拟的重要驱动因子,也是可再生太阳光伏能源利用的重要指标,其长期变化也一直是众多领域科学家重点关注的科学问题之一。文中从现有SSR气候数据产品的对比入手,讨论了当前SSR长期变化中存在的偏差和不确定性问题,明晰了发展高质量SSR观测基准数据产品的重要性;在此基础上介绍了近年来基于迄今最为完整的SSR站点观测数据,系统考虑其存在的非均一性和抽样问题,对站点序列进行了系统的均一化处理,采用AI技术进行了重建,并对全球和区域SSR长期变化及其不确定水平进行估计等一系列工作。这些研究为全球和区域气候变化观测、检测归因和预测、预估等提供了新的证据;最后,对当前SSR数据和长期变化研究存在的问题和未来发展趋势进行了展望。

     

    Abstract: With the rapid development of satellite observation technology, scientists have made relatively accurate estimates of the energy budget at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. However, the level of estimation error in the Earth's surface energy imbalance is still more than one order of magnitude greater than the changes in radiative forcing caused by the increase in greenhouse gases. Among various components of energy imbalance estimation on the Earth's surface, the downward shortwave solar radiation contributes one of the most important sources of error. Therefore, accurate observation of surface solar radiation (SSR) has become a key variable in reducing this error. At the same time, SSR is not only an important driving factor for simulating land surface processes, but also an important indicator for the utilization of renewable solar photovoltaic energy. Its long-term changes have always been a key scientific issue for scientists in many fields. This paper first compares existing SSR data products, then discusses the bias and uncertainty issues in the long-term changes of SSR, and finally clarifies the importance of developing high-quality SSR observation baseline data products. On this basis, the paper introduces a series of research in recent years, which are based on the most complete SSR station observation data to date and systematically considered its inhomogeneity and sampling problems, performed systematic homogenization processing and AI reconstruction of site sequences, and estimated the long-term changes and uncertainty levels of global and regional SSRs. These studies provide new evidences for global and regional climate change observations, detection attribution, and future projection. Finally, this paper provides an outlook on existing problems and future development trends in current SSR data and long-term change research.

     

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