强对流雷暴和闪电的探测、机理及预报

Detection,mechanism,and forecasting of lightning and thunderstorms

  • 摘要: 雷暴是产生闪电的强对流天气系统,产生大量闪电的雷暴可导致多种灾害性天气。近10年来,高时\空分辨率闪电探测技术的发展,不仅使雷电的发展传输特征和机理、物理效应等方面取得了突破性进展,而且与双偏振多普勒天气雷达、高分辨率数值模式结合,提升了对雷暴云动力-微物理-电过程及其相互关系,以及雷暴云电荷结构的科学认识,促进了雷电预报系统和面向数值预报模式的闪电资料同化方案的建立。从4方面对近10年中国在强对流雷暴和闪电探测、机理和预报领域的主要研究进展进行回顾,包括通道可分辨的高精度闪电三维定位技术及应用,不同类型雷暴系统中的闪电活动特征及其与云动力、微物理过程的关系,雷暴云电荷结构的观测和数值模拟,以及闪电预报与面向数值预报模式的闪电资料同化等,并对相关研究的未来发展进行了展望。

     

    Abstract: Thunderstorms are severe convective weather systems generating lightning, which can lead to various catastrophic weather when a large amount of lightning is produced. In the past decade, high spatiotemporal resolution lightning detection technology has been developed quickly, which has laid important foundation of the study of propagation and mechanisms of lightning, as well as the physical effects of lightning. Combined with Doppler dual polarization weather radar and high-resolution numerical models, thunderstorm dynamics, microphysics, electricity processes, and their interrelationships have been well investigated, and some new insights into the thunderstorm charge distribution and its relation to the thunderstorm structure have been obtained. All these have promoted the establishment of lightning forecasting method and data assimilation scheme for improving thunderstorm forecasting. This paper reviews the recent research progress in detection, mechanism, and forecasting of thunderstorm and lightning in China in last decade from four aspects, including: (1) high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) lightning mapping technology and application, (2) lightning in different thunderstorms and its relationship with cloud dynamical and microphysical processes, (3) observation and simulation of thunderstorm charge structure, and (4) lightning prediction and lightning data assimilation for thunderstorm forecasting. Some of the major frontiers and challenges remaining in lightning and thunderstorms studies are also highlighted.

     

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