强对流雷暴和闪电的探测、机理及预报

Detection,mechanism,and forecasting of lightning and thunderstorms

  • 摘要: 雷暴是产生闪电的强对流天气系统,产生大量闪电的雷暴可导致多种灾害性天气。近10年来,高时\空分辨率闪电探测技术的发展,不仅使雷电的发展传输特征和机理、物理效应等方面取得了突破性进展,而且与双偏振多普勒天气雷达、高分辨率数值模式结合,提升了对雷暴云动力-微物理-电过程及其相互关系,以及雷暴云电荷结构的科学认识,促进了雷电预报系统和面向数值预报模式的闪电资料同化方案的建立。从4方面对近10年中国在强对流雷暴和闪电探测、机理和预报领域的主要研究进展进行回顾,包括通道可分辨的高精度闪电三维定位技术及应用,不同类型雷暴系统中的闪电活动特征及其与云动力、微物理过程的关系,雷暴云电荷结构的观测和数值模拟,以及闪电预报与面向数值预报模式的闪电资料同化等,并对相关研究的未来发展进行了展望。

     

    Abstract: Thunderstorms are severe convective weather systems generating lightning, which can lead to various catastrophic weather when a large amount of lightning is produced. In the past decade, high spatiotemporal resolution lightning detection technology has been developed, which has laid a solid foundation for investigating the propagation and development mechanism of lightning as well as associated physical effects. Based on the Doppler dual polarization weather radar and high-resolution numerical models, thunderstorm dynamics, microphysics, electricity processes, and their interactions have been well investigated, and some new insights into the thunderstorm charge distribution and its relation to the thunderstorm structure have been obtained. All these have promoted the lightning forecasting and lightning data assimilation. This paper reviews the recent research progress in detection, mechanism, and forecasting of thunderstorms and lightning in China in the last decade from four aspects: (1) High-resolution three-dimensional (3D) lightning mapping technology and application, (2) lightning in different thunderstorms and its relationship with cloud dynamics and microphysics, (3) observation and simulation of lightning charge structure in thunderstorms, and (4) lightning prediction and lightning data assimilation for thunderstorm forecasting. Major challenges and the cutting-edge research directions in lightning and thunderstorms studies are also highlighted.

     

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