引发浙江短时强降水的后向传播型中尺度对流系统特征研究

A study on the characteristics of back-building mesoscale convective system causing short-duration heavy rainfall in Zhejiang Province

  • 摘要: 后向传播型中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective System,MCS)极易引发突发性、局地性短时强降水。为了揭示该类MCS的特征及其与强降水的联系,对浙江省2015—2021年暖季引发短时强降水的后向传播型MCS的时空分布、不同类型组织形态和环境热动力因子进行了系统研究,结果表明,引发浙江短时强降水后向传播型MCS存在有显著的月际变化和日变化规律,主要发生在6、7两月,且分别以最强小时雨量30和50 mm为主。MCS主要形成在11—14时,尤其12—13时形成的最多。绝大多数MCS的持续时长≤12 h,其中持续10 h的数量最多。后向传播开始的时间呈准双峰型,较MCS生成的主要时间晚2—3 h。近90%的个例最大小时雨量出现时间在后向传播开始之后0—2.5 h内。根据对流系统组织的演变特征,短时强降水后向传播型MCS分为平流型、准静止型、转向型和传播型4种类型,约42%发生在弱天气尺度系统强迫下。后向传播型MCS常发生在中等能量、高湿、具有一定垂直风切变的热动力环境中,但不同组织类型的环境因子有一定差异。准静止型MCS占比最大(44.7%),其环境场动力特征较显著,具有较强的大气层结不稳定度,较大的引导气流和中低层垂直风切变,产生的平均最大小时雨量相对较弱(中位数为50 mm/h);而传播型MCS(占比约17%)的环境场热力特征较明显,表现为较大的CAPE和PW,造成的平均最大小时雨量最强(中位数达70 mm/h)。

     

    Abstract: Back-building MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) are highly conductive to sudden, localized short-duration heavy rainfall. In order to reveal the characteristics of this type of MCS and its association with heavy rainfall, this study systematically studies spatial and temporal distribution of back-building MCSs that triggered short-duration heavy rainfall during the warm seasons from 2015 to 2021 in Zhejiang province. Different organizational forms and environmental thermodynamic factors of different types are also explored. The results show that back-building MCSs in Zhejiang province exhibit significant monthly and diurnal variation patterns, i.e., MCSs mainly occur in June and July with peak hourly rainfall intensities of 30 and 50 mm in these two months, respectively. The MCS primarily form between 11:00 and 14:00, with the highest frequency of formation occurring between 12:00 and 13:00. The majority of MCSs have a duration of 12 hours or less, with 10-hour duration being the most common. The start time of backward propagation shows a quasi-bimodal pattern, which is 2—3 hours later than the main formation time of the MCS. For 90% of the cases, the time of maximum hourly rainfall intensity occur within 0—2.5 hours after the onset of the backward propagation. Based on the evolution characteristics of convective system organization, the back-building MCSs with short-duration heavy rainfall in Zhejiang province can be categorized into four types: advective, quasi-stationary, turning, and propagating MCS, with about 42% occuring under the forcing of weak synoptic-scale system. The MCS usually occurs in an environment with medium CAPE, high humidity and appropriate vertical wind shear, but with different environmental factors for different types. The quasi-stationary MCSs account for the largest proportion (44.7%) and are characterized by significant environmental dynamic features, including strong atmospheric instability, large steering flow, and mid-to-lower-level vertical wind shear. They result in relatively weak maximum hourly rainfall intensity (the median is 50 mm/h). Propagating MCSs (accounting for about 17%) exhibit more distinct environmental thermodynamic characteristics with large CAPE and PW, and lead to the strongest maximum hourly rainfall intensity (the median is 70 mm/h).

     

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