中国数值模式评估方法的研究进展综述

A review of research progress on numerical model verification and evaluation in China

  • 摘要: 评估是数值模式研发与应用中的重要环节。近年来,随着数值模式复杂程度的提升和精细化预报需求的增加,模式评估方法也有了迅速发展。首先概要回顾了中外在数值模式评估方法方面的研究动态,进而关注中国学者近些年在新一代数值模式动力框架评估、东亚季风多时空尺度变率和青藏高原天气、气候模拟评估方面的主要研究成果,并针对降水这一关键过程,回顾了降水日变化及过程演变等精细化评估的工作。最后提出多源观测资料的应用、针对不同模式研发和应用场景的评估方法研究,以及模式评估与机器学习等新技术的结合是未来的研究方向。

     

    Abstract: Evaluation constitutes a crucial component in the creation and application of numerical models. As these models have escalated in complexity in recent years, there has been an increasing demand for more accurate forecasting, thereby catalyzing substantial advancements in model verification and evaluation techniques. This paper begins with a review of recent domestic and international progress in model evaluation and verification, and subsequently delves into the significant contributions made by Chinese researchers in evaluating the dynamical frameworks of next-generation numerical models, the spatiotemporal variability of the East Asian monsoon, and the assessment of weather and climate conditions around the Qingzang plateau. Given the identification of precipitation as a key process, the paper presents a comprehensive review of evaluation efforts pertaining to diurnal variations and process evolution in precipitation. The paper concludes by outlining potential future research outlooks, including the integration of multi-source observation data, the development of evaluation techniques specific to certain models and application contexts, and the synergy between model evaluation and machine learning technology.

     

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