1961年以来中国区域性气候与极端事件变化格局

Regional climate and extreme event change patterns in China since 1961

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变暖背景下,中国区域气候与极端天气气候事件发生了显著变化。深入了解和认识区域气候和极端天气气候事件的变化规律和驱动机制,对于气候变化应对和灾害风险管理具有十分重要的科学意义。本文回顾并梳理了国内外相关的前沿科学进展,对比了东部和西部地区气候变化响应的一致性和差异性。研究表明, 1961年以来,中国的气温和降水总体呈上升趋势,而降水的变化表现出明显的区域性特征。西部地区气候变化的显著特点是“暖湿化”,以西北和青藏高原北部为主,西南部分地区表现出“暖干化”特征。东部地区降水主要呈“南涝北旱”的格局,2010年之后,伴随东北和华北地区降水明显增加,这种格局逐渐改变。伴随气候变暖,极端高温、强降水和干旱事件的频率和强度显著增加。以温室气体排放为主的人类活动是观测到的平均气温和极端温度升高的主要驱动因素;人类活动和气候系统内部变率共同驱动了区域降水的变化。此外,本文展望了未来中国气候变化研究领域的重点和难点科学问题。

     

    Abstract: Under the background of global warming, significant changes have occurred in the regional climate and extreme weather events in China. A deep understanding and recognition of the changing patterns and driving mechanisms of regional climate and extreme weather events is of great scientific significance for climate change adaptation and disaster risk management. This study reviewed and summarized the latest scientific advancements, and compared the consistency and differences in climate change responses between eastern and western China. The research indicates that since 1961, temperature and precipitation in China have shown an overall increasing trend, with precipitation changes displaying distinct regional characteristics. A notable feature of climate change in western China is “warming-wetting”, mainly in the Northwest China and northern Tibetan Plateau, while some areas in the Southwest China exhibit aridification characteristics of “warming-drying”. In the eastern China, precipitation has mainly followed a “southern flood-northern drought” pattern. After 2010, with a significant increase in precipitation in the Northeast and North China regions, this pattern gradually changed. With climate warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme high temperatures, heavy rainfall, and drought events have significantly increased. Human activities, primarily from greenhouse gas emissions, is the main driving factor behind observed increases in average temperatures and extreme temperatures. Both human activities and internal variability of the climate system jointly drive changes in regional precipitation. Additionally, this study looks ahead to key scientific issues and challenges in the future research of climate change in China.

     

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