集合预报进展、挑战及展望

A review on development,challenges,and future perspectives of ensemble forecast

  • 摘要: 系统概述了集合预报的发展历程和中外主要的集合预报方法,重点回顾了中国全球/区域集合预报系统的发展历程、集合预报系统业务技术、初值扰动技术、模式扰动技术和集合预报应用的进步,以及与当前国际主要数值预报中心集合预报水平的对比。针对集合预报系统逐步走向对流尺度、人工智能模型的趋势,从业务、科研、人工智能与集合预报、天气与气候一体化以及用户需求等方面分析了集合预报技术发展面临的主要挑战,并对未来发展做了展望。

     

    Abstract: This paper reviews the development of ensemble weather forecast and primary techniques employed in the main ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) designed by China and other countries. Here, the emphasis is placed on the advancements in the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) global and regional ensemble prediction systems (i.e., CMA-GEPS and CMA-REPS), with particular attention to operational technologies such as initial and model perturbation methods and the applications of ensemble forecast. Through comparative verification with EPSs from other leading international numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers, CMA's EPSs demonstrate forecast skill comparable to its global counterparts. As EPSs progress to convective scales and coupled systems between sea, land, air, and ice, the paper addresses some key challenges in ensemble forecast technologies across the aspects of operations, science, artificial intelligence (AI) integration, the merging of weather and climate, and user requirements. Finally, the summaries and future perspectives of ensemble forecast are demonstrated.

     

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