集合预报进展、挑战及展望

A review on the development, challenges and future prospects of ensemble forecast

  • 摘要: 系统概述了集合预报的发展历程和中外主要的集合预报方法,重点回顾了中国全球/区域集合预报系统的发展历程、集合预报系统业务技术、初值扰动技术、模式扰动技术和集合预报应用的进步,以及与当前国际主要数值预报中心集合预报水平的对比。针对集合预报系统逐步走向对流尺度、海-气耦合模式的趋势,从业务、科研、人工智能与集合预报、天气与气候一体化以及用户需求等方面分析了集合预报技术发展面临的主要挑战,并对未来发展做了展望。

     

    Abstract: This paper reviews the development of ensemble weather forecast and primary techniques employed in major ensemble prediction systems (EPS) developed by China and other countries. The emphasis is placed on the development of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) global and regional EPSs, focusing on operational technologies, initial and model perturbation methods, and the application of ensemble forecast. Besides, comparative analyses of forecast skills of CMA EPS with those from other major international NWP centers are presented. Following the trend of the EPS towards convective-scale and air-ocean coupling, the paper addresses key challenges in ensemble forecast technologies from the perspectives of operation, science, integration with Artificial Intelligence (AI), as well as the integration of weather and climate, and user demands. The summary and future prospects of ensemble forecast are presented at the end.

     

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