多参数联合扰动方法在飑线系统集合预报中的应用研究

Application of multi-parameter combined perturbation method in ensemble forecast of squall line system

  • 摘要: 地面强冷池在飑线灾害性大风的生成过程中具有重要作用,其模拟强度与模式内云微物理过程及边界层过程的参数设置密切相关。目的然而,由于参数的不确定性,目前仍无法对飑线系统实施合理的参数扰动。为提升对流尺度数值模式在飑线系统预报中的表现,方法基于WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模式,针对飑线冷池模拟偏弱的问题,从云微物理过程和边界层过程等方案中选取五个关键参数进行敏感性试验。并在此基础上,对其中的敏感参数实施联合扰动,探讨该方法对江苏地区一次飑线过程模拟的影响。结果结果表明,调整影响蒸发作用的参数,能够显著改变对地面冷池的估计,其中反映雨滴大小对其下落速度影响的参数CONSTB和考虑雨滴下落时周围空气的流动对雨滴影响的参数VF1R对地面冷池的敏感性最强;在单参数和多参数联合扰动试验中,飑线冷区模拟的2 m温度相比对照试验低1-2 ℃,有效改善了冷池模拟偏弱的问题。此外,CONSTB和VF1R的联合扰动对预报的影响更显著,且其模拟的10 m最大风速最接近实况。结论上述结果表明,针对飑线冷池的多参数联合扰动方法不仅能够有效表征物理参数化方案中参数的不确定性,还能改进对冷池的模拟,进而提高对飑线大风的预报准确性。

     

    Abstract: The strong cold pool is pivotal in the genesis of severe gales associated with squall lines, and its simulation intensity is closely related to the parameter settings of cloud microphysical processes and boundary layer processes in the model. Despite parameter uncertainty, it remains challenging to apply reasonable parameter perturbations to the squall line system. To improve the performance of the convective-scale numerical model in the forecast of the squall line system, based on the WRF (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model) model, five key parameters were selected from the cloud microphysical process and the boundary layer process to carry out the sensitivity test for the weak simulation of the cold pool of the squall line. Subsequently, the joint perturbation of the sensitive parameters is carried out, and the influence of this method on the simulation of a squall line process in Jiangsu is discussed. The results demonstrate that adjusting parameters that influence evaporation can significantly alter the estimation of the cold pool. Specifically, the parameter CONSTB, which reflects the impact of raindrop size on its terminal velocity, and the parameter VF1R, which accounts for the influence of surrounding airflow on raindrop behavior, exhibit the highest sensitivity to the cold pool dynamics. In the single-parameter and multi-parameter combined perturbation experiments, the simulated 2 m temperature in the cold zone of the squall line is 1-2 ℃ lower than that of the control experiment, which effectively improves the problem of weak simulation of the cold pool. In addition, the joint perturbation of CONSTB and VF1R parameters had a notably positive impact on forecast accuracy, with the simulated 10 m maximum wind speed being the most accurate in comparison to actual observations. Results show that the multi-parameter joint perturbation method for squall line cold pools effectively captures the uncertainty of parameters within physical parameterization schemes and improves cold pool simulation, thereby enhancing the accuracy of squall line gale predictions.

     

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