中国天气预报业务现代化发展综述

A review on the modernization development of weather forecasting operations in China

  • 摘要: 天气预报是气象业务的核心,新中国成立后开始了系统化的天气预报业务体系和业务能力建设。文中回顾了天气预报业务近70余年的发展进程,综述了天气学经验预报、以数值预报为基础的现代化发展以及数值预报基础上专业分工精细预报3个阶段的业务特点,并进一步回顾了数值模式、气象要素、灾害天气预报等专项预报业务的技术进步历程。指出,天气预报的现代化发展得益于气象科技的进步,尤其是数值天气预报技术的广泛应用和多种观测手段的融合。通过总结天气预报业务发展历程,强调了学习借鉴先进技术、科研与业务结合、气象现代化建设的重要性。

     

    Abstract: Weather forecasting is the core of meteorological operations. Following the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, systematic development of weather forecasting services and operational capabilities began. The evolution of weather forecasting over the past seven decades were reviewed, summarizing the operational characteristics of three key phases: Empirical synoptic forecasting, modern development driven by numerical weather prediction (NWP), and specialized fine-scale forecasting based on NWP advancements. Furthermore, this paper examines technological progress in specific forecasting areas, including numerical models, meteorological elements, and severe weather predictions. This study highlights that the modernization of weather forecasting has benefited from advancements in meteorological science and technology, particularly the widespread application of numerical prediction techniques and the integration of diverse observational methods. By reviewing this developmental journey, the present paper emphasizes the importance of adopting advanced technologies, enhancing the synergy between research and operational practices, and advancing the modernization of meteorological services.

     

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