中国台风预报技术发展的历史、现状与未来

Development of tropical cyclone forecasting technology inChina:Past,present,and future

  • 摘要: 近百年来,中国台风预报技术的发展经历了看云识天、天气图分析、统计预报、统计-动力预报、数值预报及其集成应用等主要阶段。随着台风预报技术的发展,中国台风路径和强度的预报能力呈现出阶梯式跃进特征,准确性和稳定性均显著提升。展望未来,台风预报已进入突破台风精细结构预报和长时效预报挑战的新阶段,加强物理规律认识深化和人工智能技术发展相融合是未来台风预报技术发展的一条希望之路。

     

    Abstract: In the past century, the development of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting technology in China has experienced several main stages, from cloud identification, weather chart analysis, to statistical forecasting, statistics–dynamic forecasting, numerical forecasting, and their integrated application. As a result, the capability in forecasting TCs in China has significantly improved in both accuracy and stability, with noticeable stepwise features corresponding to the developments in forecasting technology. Looking ahead, forecasting of TCs has entered a new phase to break through the bottlenecks of fine structure and long lead time forecasting. Advancing the TC physics understanding is converging with improved AI capabilities, catalyzing a foreseen leap in TC forecasting technology.

     

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