中国数值天气预报业务系统70年发展

70 years of development in China's operational numerical weather prediction system

  • 摘要: 数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在基础理论研究、关键技术突破和业务系统研制方面取得了有广泛国际影响力的研究成果。在回顾中国数值天气预报技术及业务系统发展基础上,重点综述中国自主发展的GRAPES(Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)和YHGSM(YinHe Global Spectral Model)两大业务预报系统的重要科技进展。GRAPES在模式动力框架、四维变分资料同化、卫星资料同化技术、雷达资料同化应用、集合预报和云物理过程等方面实现了技术突破,建立了无缝隙的、包含确定性预报和集合预报系统的中国气象局数值天气预报业务体系。YHGSM持续走谱模式发展路线,突破了干空气质量守恒全球大气谱模式、集合四维变分资料同化、海-陆-气耦合集合预报等技术,建立了以高分辨率全球中期和月延伸数值预报系统为核心的数值预报体系。军队和地方自主研发的数值天气预报系统是长期坚持既定科学技术方向、学术研究和业务研制紧密结合的结果。

     

    Abstract: Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the core technology of weather forecast and disaster prevention and mitigation. The research and operational applications of NWP have always been highly valued in China, and have achieved great achievements with broad international influence in the theories, methods, and operational system developments. This paper first summarizes the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China, and then focuses on the current status and recent progress of two domestically developed NWP systems, i.e., GRAPES (Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) and YHGSM (YinHe Global Spectral Model). GRAPES implements deterministic and ensemble forecasting systems with autonomous technology ranging from regional 3–10 km to global 12–50 km resolutions. New breakthroughs have been made in dynamic core, four-dimensional variational assimilation and satellite data assimilation, etc. The GRAPES system also is extended to include the atmospheric chemistry model, typhoon numerical model, and ocean wave model. YHGSM continues to follow the development route of spectral models, breaking through techniques such as dry-mass conserved spectral dynamical core, ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation, coupled ocean-land-atmosphere ensemble forecast, and establishing a numerical forecast system with high resolution global medium-term and monthly extension numerical forecast as the core. The NWP systems independently developed by the army and the government is the result of long-term adherence to the established science and technology direction, the close combination of academic research and operation development.

     

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