地球系统模式和数值模拟研究

Research on the Earth system model and its numerical simulations

  • 摘要: 地球系统是将大气、陆地、海洋、冰冻圈、土壤和岩石圈以及其中的生物视为一个整体,由一系列相互作用过程联系起来的复杂非线性的多重耦合系统。地球系统模式(ESM)是描述这一复杂耦合系统的数学物理模式。ESM已超越气候系统模式对大气、陆地和海洋状态的物理描述,故不止可用来做天气和气候预测,还可以研究环境和生态系统的演变过程,研究人类活动对气候和生态环境的影响,以及研究人类调控自然界工程的合理或最优的方案。文中概述了“地球系统模式”提出和研究的一些历史、地球系统模式的构成;简介了中国科学院地球系统模式(CAS-ESM)的一些主要特点,以及数值模拟的一些主要研究成果和应用;最后提出进一步发展的一些问题。

     

    Abstract: The Earth system is a complex, nonlinear, and multi-coupled giant system that integrates the atmosphere, land, ocean, cryosphere, soil, and lithosphere along with their associated organisms through a series of interactive processes. The Earth System Model (ESM) is an advanced mathematical-physical model designed to represent this complex, coupled system. It extends beyond the traditional climate system models that focus primarily on the physical representation of atmospheric, land, and oceanic states. Consequently, the ESM can be utilized not only for weather forecasting and climate prediction, but also for investigating the evolution of the environment and ecosystems as well as the impact of human activities on the climate and ecological environment, and eventually supports the development of rational and optimal strategies for human intervention in natural systems. This paper provides a comprehensive summary of the development history of the Earth System Model and details of individual components of the ESMs. The features of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Earth System Model (CAS-ESM), along with its significant achievements and applications in numerical simulation, are elaborated. Finally, some challenges and prospects for further development are delineated.

     

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