基于雷达外推的烤烟人工防雹效益评估方法研究

Study on hail suppression benefit assessment on tobacco based on radar extrapolation

  • 摘要: 西南地区作为烤烟主要种植区域之一,地形多样且冰雹灾害频发,严重影响了烟草生产、收购以及烟农收益。人工防雹是有效防控冰雹灾害的手段,但其效益评估大多以防区内外对比等方法为主,缺乏客观定量评估。本研究构建烤烟冰雹灾损模型,以2023年7月1日冰雹过程为例,基于雷达观测和外推数据反演有/无人工防雹作业情况下的冰雹相关因子,对烤烟的人工防雹减损经济效益进行了详细评估。得到如下结论:对比4种回归模型构建了烤烟灾损和冰雹最大直径、持续时间和密度的最优关系模型,发现对数线性回归模型能够较好模拟烤烟的冰雹灾损;雷达能够反演区域1 km分辨率冰雹相关因子和烤烟冰雹灾损情况,烤烟受灾严重区域与雷达反演冰雹直径较大和持续时间较长区域较为一致;利用雷达观测和外推数据发现不同作业点防区内烤烟冰雹减损效果不同,近一半防区减损效果达30%以上;本次冰雹过程人工防雹作业每投入1元,能够带来烤烟减损9.59元。本研究可为人工防雹对冰雹承灾体经济效益、金融气象服务效益定量评估等研究提供科学依据。

     

    Abstract: As one of the main tobacco cultivation regions, Southwest China features diverse terrain and experiences frequent hailstorms that seriously affect tobacco production, procurement, and the income of farmers. Hail suppression is an effective way to prevent and/or control hailstorms, yet most of its benefit assessment is based on comparisons between areas inside and outside the region of hail suppression. Objective and quantitative assessment is far less than sufficient. The present study constructs a hail yield loss model for tobacco. The hailstorm process on 1 July 2023 is taken as an example, and a detailed assessment of the economic benefits of hail suppression is conducted based on hail-related factors with/without hail suppression retrieved from radar observations and extrapolated data. Results are as follows. By comparing four regression models, an optimal relationship model is constructed between tobacco yield loss rate and hail maximum diameter, duration, and density. It is found that the log-linear regression model can effectively simulate tobacco crop damage caused by hails. Radar can reflect regional hail factors and tobacco hail damage at 1 km resolution. The yield loss areas and radar reflection areas of hails with larger diameters and longer durations are consistent. Using radar observations and extrapolated data, it is found that the hail suppression effect varies in different areas. The yield loss caused by hails can be reduced by up to more than 30% in nearly half of the hail suppression area. One Chinese Yuan (RMB) invested in the hail suppression operation during this hail process is able to bring about a tobacco loss reduction of 9.59 yuan. This study provides a scientific basis for the research on methods of quantitative evaluation of economic benefits of hail suppression as well as financial benefits of meteorological services.

     

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