基于气候资源的光伏/水力发电指数保险产品设计及其对冲性分析—以北江流域为例

Design and hedging analysis of photovoltaic/hydropower generation index insurance products based on climatic resources: A case study of the Beijiang river basin

  • 摘要: 为解决可再生能源行业的强天气依赖性及传统保险局限,需加速天气指数保险在该领域风险管理中的应用。以北江流域为例,利用1984—2023 年气象要素、2003—2017年径流量等资料,结合水文和发电潜力模型,基于月尺度解析光伏/水力气候资源时空分布特征,通过触发值设定、纯费率厘定、赔付方案制定及验证等核心环节,设计流域级光伏/水力发电指数保险产品;运用 Kendall 秩相关分析与标准差下降百分比法,定量评估其在不同时空上和不同配比下的对冲效果。结果表明:光伏/水力发电指数保险以月太阳辐射量和径流量为指数,根据超越概率设置不同月赔付触发阈值,可提供多档风险保障方案。在不同起赔标准下,光、水发电指数保险月度纯费率年均值分别为7.1%—11.8%和 7.1%—39.9%,月度区域累计赔付次数占比年均值分别为6.1%—13.3%和6.9%—29.3%。光伏/水力双要素发电指数保险空间对冲性优于单要素保险产品,相同空间上6—10月光伏/水力发电潜能互补性普遍较强,且呈“东南强西北弱”分布态势;不同空间上光伏/水力发电指数保险风险分散性更强,且“水电对冲光电”分散效果更优。在时空对冲性最强情景下,光、水发电指数保险产品按7:3配置时,保险赔付率波动最小,较单独光伏、水力发电指数保险分别下降 19.2%、51.9%。可见,通过优化不同保险产品的占比,可有效降低“对冲型”保险产品赔付率波动,提升其整体经营稳定性。

     

    Abstract: To address the strong weather dependence of the new energy industry and limitations of traditional insurance, it is imperative to accelerate the application of weather index insurance in new energy risk management. Based on a case study in the Beijiang river basin, this paper utilizes meteorological data from 1984 to 2023 and runoff data from 2003 to 2017 combined with hydrological and power generation potential models to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of photovoltaic and hydrological climate resources on a monthly scale. Considering core processes such as trigger value setting, pure premium rate determination, compensation scheme formulation and verification, a basin-level photovoltaic and hydropower index insurance product is designed and applied. Furthermore, Kendall rank correlation analysis and standard deviation reduction percentage method are employed to systematically evaluate its hedging effects under different temporal-spatial conditions and different proportioning scenarios. The results show that the photovoltaic and hydropower index insurance, with monthly solar radiation and runoff as indices, can provide multi-level risk protection schemes by setting different monthly compensation trigger thresholds according to exceedance probabilities. Under different claim initiation standards, the annual average values of monthly pure premium rates for photovoltaic and hydropower index insurance are 7.1%—11.8% and 7.1%—39.9%, and the annual average values of monthly cumulative compensation ratios are 6.1%—13.3% and 6.9%—29.3% respectively. The spatial hedging performance of the photovoltaic and hydropower index insurance is superior to that of single-factor power generation index insurance. In the same spatial range, the complementarity of photovoltaic and hydropower generation potential is generally strong from June to October, showing a distribution pattern of "stronger in the southeast and weaker in the northwest". The risk diversification effect of photovoltaic and hydropower index insurance in different spatial areas is better than that in the same spatial area, and the diversification effect of "hydropower hedging solar power" is more optimal. In the scenario with the strongest hedging performance, when the proportion of photovoltaic and hydropower index insurance products is 7:3, the volatility of the insurance loss ratio reaches the smallest, which is respectively 19.2% and 51.9% lower than that of single photovoltaic and hydropower index insurance. Therefore, by optimizing the proportion of different insurance products, the volatility of the loss ratio of "hedging-type" insurance products can be effectively reduced, and their overall operational stability can be improved.

     

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