基于多源数据的风电天气指数基差风险比较和保险设计

Comparison of basis risk and insurance design of wind power weather indices based on multi-source data.Acta Meteorologica Sinica

  • 摘要: 为提升风电场在风资源波动条件下的风险管理能力,本研究以河北省两座风电场的测风塔小时实测风速为基准,分别基于地面气象站、MERRA-2和ERA-5三个数据源的小时风速数据,构建两类风电天气指数:指数Ⅰ(月平均风速)和指数Ⅱ(月可利用发电量),并在2022年1月-2023年3月开展保险基差风险分析、纯费率计算及赔付模拟。气象站风速数据构建的指数在两个风电场均表现出最低的基差风险。尤其对于测风塔1,指数Ⅰ和指数Ⅱ与推算出的测风塔可利用发电量的相关系数分别达0.94和0.93,基差波动率分别为0.042和0.047 GW·h。此外,指数Ⅱ的赔付/保费比整体高于指数Ⅰ,表现出更高的低风速风险识别能力和赔付能力。在P75(75%概率,下同)触发条件下,全年纯费率为7.11%—8.00%,赔付更频繁、金额更高;而P90(90%概率,下同)条件下,费率降至2.80%—3.05%,保障能力相对有限。本研究设计的风电天气指数保险方案验证了基于气象站风速数据构建此类保险的可行性与适用性,可以为场站级天气指数保险产品的开发提供数据依据和模型支撑。

     

    Abstract: To enhance the risk management of wind farms under fluctuating wind resources, this study uses hourly wind speed observations from wind measurement towers at two wind farms in Hebei Province as the reference to construct two types of wind power weather indices—Index Ⅰ (monthly mean wind speed) and Index Ⅱ (monthly available power generation)—based on hourly wind speed data from meteorological stations, MERRA-2, and ERA-5. Over the period from January 2022 to March 2023, basis risk analysis, pure premium rate calculation, and payout simulation are conducted. It is found that indices derived from meteorological station data exhibit the lowest basis risk across both wind farms. For tower 1 in particular, Index Ⅰ and Index Ⅱ yield correlation coefficients of 0.94 and 0.93, and basis risk volatilities of 0.042 and 0.047 GWh, respectively—significantly outperforming indices based on reanalysis datasets. Moreover, Index Ⅱ consistently shows a higher payout-to-premium ratio than Index Ⅰ, indicating stronger capacity to identify and respond to low-wind events. Under the P75 trigger level, annual pure premium rates range from 7.11% to 8.00%, with more frequent and higher payouts; under the P90 level, rates fall to 2.80%—3.05%, with reduced coverage effectiveness. The wind power weather index insurance framework developed in this study demonstrates the feasibility and applicability of designing such insurance based on wind speed data, offering robust data and methodological support for site-level weather index insurance product development.

     

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