巨灾债券的理论与实践进展

Advances in the theory and practice of catastrophe bonds

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化加剧、极端天气事件频发的背景下,传统保险和政府财政救助体系面临日益严峻的挑战。巨灾债券作为一种将巨灾风险从保险或者再保险市场转移至资本市场的创新金融工具,其重要性日益凸显。从金融气象学的独特视角,深入剖析气象科技,特别是数据获取、数值预报与人工智能(AI)大模型技术等,在巨灾债券产品研发、定价、发行、触发和兑付等全生命周期中的核心支撑作用。概述了全球巨灾债券市场的整体概况,进而聚焦于中国市场的起步发展、政策驱动与特色模式。通过对比分析,指出了中国在巨灾风险数据基础、精细化模型以及市场生态方面存在的挑战。最后提出未来应以AI大模型等前沿技术发展为契机,通过构建国家级巨灾风险数据平台、深化“气象+金融”跨界融合、提升气象服务核心能力等策略,为中国建立多层次巨灾风险分散体系提供坚实的科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: In the context of intensifying global climate change and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, traditional insurance and government disaster relief systems are facing growing challenges. Catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), which transfer catastrophe risks from insurance and reinsurance markets to capital markets, have emerged as an innovative financial instrument. From the unique perspective of financial meteorology, this paper provides an in-depth analysis of the core supporting role of meteorological technology—particularly data collection, numerical forecasting, and artificial intelligence (AI) large-model technologies—throughout the entire lifecycle of cat bonds, including product design, pricing, issuance, triggering, and settlement. This study outlines the overall landscape of the global catastrophe bond market and then focuses on the emerging development, policy-driven initiatives, and distinctive models in the Chinese market. Through comparative analysis, it identifies challenges China faces in terms of catastrophe risk data infrastructure, refined modeling, and market ecosystem. Finally, the paper proposes that future efforts should leverage frontier technologies such as AI large models, along with strategies such as constructing a national catastrophe risk data platform, deepening cross-sector integration of meteorology and finance, and enhancing the core capabilities of meteorological services, to provide solid scientific support for establishing a multi-layered catastrophe risk dispersion system in China.

     

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