面向电力交易的电价-气温指数新型天气衍生品设计研究

Design of a novel electricity price-temperature index weather derivative for power trading

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化加剧、极端天气事件频发的背景下,电力市场的稳定运行与发展面临显著的气象风险。天气期货可将气象数据转化为可交易的金融产品,实现天气风险的市场化配置,为发电企业、售电公司及用电大户提供高效的风险避险工具。以山西省为例,基于2022—2024年电力与气象数据,融合电力市场指标与气象要素,通过多元线性回归与非线性变换构建模型,采用逐步回归方法筛选出简洁且显著的特征组合来构建日收益高温指数(DHTI),并设计相应天气衍生品合约。该指数综合了气温指数这一气象变量以及日前均价、实时均价、新能源出力等关键电力因子,与电力收益具有较高相关,且模型具备良好的稳定性。案例分析表明,该指数可有效用于发电方和用户侧的套期保值,平滑因气温变化导致的收益波动,为电力市场参与者提供低成本、高效率的风险管理工具,推动中国电力市场的完善与发展。

     

    Abstract: In the context of increasing global climate change and frequent extreme weather events, the stable operation and development of the electricity market face significant risks. As an important component of weather derivatives, weather futures can transform meteorological data into tradable financial products, achieving market-based allocation of weather risks. They provide efficient risk-hedging tools for power generation companies, electricity retailers, and large consumers, helping to optimize resource allocation. This paper takes Shanxi province as an example and electricity and meteorological data from 2022 to 2024 are used in the study. By integrating electricity market indicators and meteorological factors, a model is constructed using multiple linear regression and nonlinear transformations. A stepwise regression approach is applied to select a concise and significant set of features, which are then used to form the Daily High Temperature Index (DHTI). Corresponding weather derivative contracts are designed accordingly. The constructed index incorporates meteorological elements such as the daily temperature index as well as electricity factors including day-ahead price, real-time price, and renewable energy output. After nonlinear transformation and dimensionless processing, the index demonstrates a strong correlation with electricity revenue and exhibits good model stability. The case study demonstrates that this index can be effectively used for hedging by both power generators and consumers, smoothing revenue fluctuations caused by temperature changes. It provides low-cost and high-efficiency risk management tools for electricity market participants, promoting the improvement and development of electricity market in China.

     

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