长三角气温指数作为金融风险管理工具在购电场景中的应用

Utilizing the Yangtze river delta temperature index for financial risk management in the context of electricity procurement

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变暖持续加剧的背景下,夏季高温等非灾难性气象风险频发,对电力系统稳定运行构成压力。相较于海外相对成熟的天气衍生品市场,中国在该领域的实践仍处于探索阶段,尤其缺乏基于典型场景的实证研究和风险管理案例。为此,基于新近发布的长三角气温指数,构建了一套面向电力需求侧的天气衍生品风险管理方案,涵盖定价模型设计与标准化指数期货产品开发。以上海某算力中心与商业综合体的夏季用电场景为实证对象,通过做多“长三角月制冷指数”期货,验证了该工具对气温导致的用电成本波动风险具有有效对冲能力。研究证实,长三角气温指数为中国非灾难性气象风险提供了主动管理工具,有助于气象金融服务实体经济的实践效能。

     

    Abstract: With the ongoing trend of global warming, frequent non-catastrophic meteorological risks such as high summer temperatures are posing challenges to the stability of power system. Compared with the relatively mature weather derivatives markets abroad, practical applications in China remain at an exploratory stage, with a particular lack of empirical studies and risk management cases based on typical scenarios. To address this gap, this study develops a comprehensive weather derivatives solution for the power industry based on the newly issued Yangtze river delta temperature index, including the design of a pricing model and standardized index futures. Using summer electricity consumption scenarios for a commercial complex and a high-performance computing center in Shanghai as empirical cases, we demonstrate that going long on the “Yangtze river delta monthly cooling index” futures can effectively hedge against temperature-driven increases in electricity cost. This study confirms that the regional temperature index can serve as an active management tool for non-catastrophic meteorological risks in China, contributing to the practical effectiveness of meteorological finance in serving the real economy.

     

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