可用于气温风险压力测试的低算力长期气温模拟方法—以长三角气温指数为例

A computationally efficient simulation framework for long-term temperature in climate risk stress testing: A case study of the Yangtze river delta temperature index

  • 摘要: 在全球变暖与极端天气频发的背景下,气温风险对经济金融稳定的威胁日益凸显。现有气温模型存在算力要求高、更新慢、难以捕捉极端气温等局限,无法满足经济金融系统对年际尺度风险量化与压力测试的时效要求。该研究基于长三角气温指数、地面观测、NCEP再分析以及CMIP6模式预估等资料,提出一种低算力要求的气温风险压力测试模型,通过改进Ornstein-Uhlenbeck(O-U)模型,使用LSTM方法引入关键物理驱动因子,增强了对极端气温的刻画能力。基于长三角气温指数2022—2024年的实证分析表明,该模型在保持低计算成本的同时,有效提升了长期预测精度与极端气温模拟能力,尤其在春、夏两季表现突出。该模型可为银行、保险、能源等行业提供灵活、高效的气温风险压力测试工具,支持日频损失估计与情景模拟。

     

    Abstract: In the context of global warming and frequent extreme weather events, temperature risk has become an increasingly prominent threat to economic and financial stability. Existing temperature models face limitations such as high computational demands, slow updates, and difficulty capturing extreme temperatures, making them inadequate for meeting the timeliness requirements of the economic and financial systems in interannual-scale risk quantification and stress testing. Based on datasets including the Yangtze river delta temperature index, surface observations, NCEP reanalysis, and CMIP6 model projections, this study proposes a computationally efficient temperature risk stress testing model. By improving the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O-U) model and incorporating key physical drivers using the LSTM method, the model enhances the description of extreme temperatures. Empirical analysis based on the Yangtze river delta temperature index from 2022 to 2024 demonstrates that the model effectively improves long-term prediction accuracy and extreme temperature simulation capability while maintaining low computational costs, with particularly strong performance in spring and summer. This model can serve as a flexible and efficient temperature risk stress testing tool for various sectors such as banking, insurance, and energy, supporting daily loss estimation and scenario simulation.

     

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