中国城市大气环境对敏感人群死亡风险影响研究:基于长时间序列能见度观测数据的追溯性评估

Impacts of atmospheric environment on mortality from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese megacities: A retrospective study based on long-term time series of visibility observations

  • 摘要: 可吸入细颗粒物(PM2.5)是与人体健康效应关联最紧密的大气污染物,中国PM2.5浓度常规监测起步较晚导致基于PM2.5的大气污染健康效应评价缺乏。大气能见度作为空气质量的有效替代指标,与人群呼吸道、心血管疾病发病率及死亡率有显著关联。利用长时间序列的能见度观测数据,采用半参数广义相加模型,探讨了2005—2016年中国8个代表性大城市不同等级能见度与心血管死亡、呼吸道死亡和全死因死亡风险之间的关联,并与PM2.5的效应进行比对。结果表明,北京、上海、广州、成都、乌鲁木齐和沈阳的能见度水平和敏感人群的死亡风险有显著关联,随着能见度级别降低,风险增大,且具有滞后效应(暴露当日及滞后1—4 d),与PM2.5作为模型变量的分析结果一致。在缺乏PM2.5观测数据的地区和时期,能见度可以作为有效指征填补健康效应评估的空白。

     

    Abstract: Epidemiological studies show that fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a major air pollutant associated with adverse health effects. However, nationwide observations of PM2.5 began after 2013, which results in a lack of assessment of air pollution impact on human health before that time. Visibility is an important indicator strongly correlated with meteorological factors and air pollutants and it can be taken as an effective alternative index for atmospheric environment. Studies have shown significant correlations between visibility and health outcomes. Using long-term visibility data, we apply a semi-parametric generalized additive model to explore the association between different visibility grades and mortality risk across eight cities from 2005 to 2016. Our results indicate that the decreases in visibility level in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Urumqi, and Shenyang would significantly increase the mortality risk among sensitive populations on various lag days. These findings are consistent with diagnostic results from the PM2.5 model. The association between visibility and mortality risk indicates that visibility can serve as a proxy indicator of air quality in areas or during periods where fine particulate matter observations are unavailable. This study effectively fills the gap in health effect assessment and can provide basic information for decision-making.

     

/

返回文章
返回