对流尺度模式对甘肃东部“7.22”特大暴雨的可预报性度量

Predictability measurement of convective-scale model for “7.22” warm-sector torrential rain in eastern Gansu

  • 摘要: 利用对流尺度模式对西北地区暖区暴雨的范围及强度预报具有较高的挑战性。利用美国国家环境预报中心全球数值天气预报系统(National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System)NCEP-GFS和中国气象局全球同化预报系统(China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System)CMA-GFS资料驱动对流尺度模式CMA-LZ(China Meteorological Administration Lanzhou),选用WSM6、LIU-MA和Thompson三种不同的云微物理方案预报2024年7月22日发生在甘肃东部的暖区暴雨过程并对其检验。结果发现,选用CMA-GFS资料为背景场时准确预报出这次降水过程的范围及强度;CMA-LZ模式选用LIU-MA云微物理过程方案时预报的降水范围及强度均优于WSM6和Thompson方案;选用LIU-MA云微物理过程预报的24小时降水量的TS评分和ACC均高于另外两个方案,虽然预报的暴雨明显偏多于采用另外两个方案,但对小雨、中雨及大雨的预报与实况更为接近;LIU-MA方案预报的雨水、云水和霰粒子较其它两个方案多,较多的粒子为促进降水提供了有利条件。总之,CMA-LZ模式以CMA-GFS资料为背景场,选用LIU-MA云微物理过程,00时起报时准确预报出了此次发生在甘肃河东地区的暖区暴雨过程。

     

    Abstract: The prediction of the range and intensity of warm-sector rainstorms in Northwest China using convection-scale models poses significant challenges. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) and the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) data were used to drive the convection-scale model CMA-LZ (China Meteorological Administration Lanzhou). Three different cloud microphysics schemes, WSM6, LIU-MA, and Thompson, were selected to forecast the warm-sector rainstorm that occurred in eastern Gansu on July 22, 2024, and the results were verified. It was found that when CMA-GFS data was used as the background field, the model accurately predicted the range and intensity of this precipitation event. The CMA-LZ model using the LIU-MA cloud microphysics scheme had better predictions of the precipitation range and intensity than the WSM6 and Thompson schemes. The 24-hour precipitation forecast using the LIU-MA cloud microphysics scheme had higher TS scores and ACC than the other two schemes. Although the predicted heavy rain was more than that using the other two schemes, the forecast of light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain was closer to the actual situation. The LIU-MA scheme predicted more rain water, cloud water, and graupel particles than the other two schemes, providing favorable conditions for precipitation. In conclusion, the CMA-LZ model, with CMA-GFS data as the background field and the LIU-MA cloud microphysics scheme, starting at 00:00, accurately predicted the warm-sector rainstorm that occurred in eastern Gansu.

     

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