基于对流可分辨尺度模式对甘肃东部“7.22”特大暴雨的研究

A case study of the “7.22” torrential rain in eastern Gansu using a convectively resolvable scale model

  • 摘要: 利用对流可分辨尺度模式对中国西北地区夏季暴雨范围及强度预报具有较高的挑战性。文中采用美国国家环境预报中心全球数值天气预报系统(National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System,NCEP-GFS)和中国气象局全球同化预报系统(China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System,CMA-GFS)资料驱动对流可分辨尺度模式CMA-LZ(China Meteorological Administration Lanzhou),选用WSM6、LIU-MA和Thompson三种云微物理方案预报2024年7月22日发生在甘肃东部的夏季暴雨过程并对其检验。结果发现,CMA-LZ模式选用CMA-GFS资料为背景场时可以预报出这次降水过程的范围及强度;选用LIU-MA云微物理方案预报的降水范围及强度均优于选用WSM6和Thompson方案;选用LIU-MA云微物理方案预报的24 h降水量TS和ACC评分均高于选用另外两个方案,虽然选用LIU-MA云微物理方案预报的暴雨偏多,但对小雨、中雨及大雨的预报与实况更为接近;选用LIU-MA云微物理方案预报的雨水、云水和霰粒子浓度较其他两个方案大,较浓的粒子为促进降水提供了有利条件。总之,CMA-LZ模式以CMA-GFS资料为背景场,选用LIU-MA云微物理方案,00时(世界时)起报准确预报出了此次发生在甘肃东部地区的夏季暴雨过程。

     

    Abstract: Forecasting the spatial extent and intensity of summer rainstorms in Northwest China poses significant challenges for convection-permitting models. In this study, the convection-permitting model CMA-LZ (China Meteorological Administration Lanzhou) is driven by initial and boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) and the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS). Three cloud microphysics schemes—WSM6, LIU-MA, and Thompson are employed to simulate a rainstorm event occurring on 22 July 2024 in eastern Gansu province and the results are verified . It is found that the CMA-LZ model initialized with the CMA-GFS data can successfully predict the spatial coverage and intensity of the precipitation event. The LIU-MA microphysics scheme outperforms WSM6 and Thompson in the forecast of rainfall distribution and intensity. Furthermore, the LIU-MA scheme yields higher TS (Threat Score) and ACC (Accuracy) scores of 24 h precipitation forecast compared to the other two schemes. Although the LIU-MA scheme slightly over predicts the rainstorm, it provides more accurate forecasts for light, moderate, and heavy rain based on verification against observations. Microphysical analysis reveals that the LIU-MA scheme produces higher concentrations of rain water, cloud water, and graupel particles than the other schemes, creating a more favorable condition for precipitation enhancement. In conclusion, the CMA-LZ model initialized with CMA-GFS data at 00: 00 UTC and utilizing the LIU-MA microphysics scheme can accurately predict the summer rainstorm event in eastern Gansu Province.

     

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