Abstract:
The prediction of the range and intensity of warm-sector rainstorms in Northwest China using convection-scale models poses significant challenges. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) and the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) data were used to drive the convection-scale model CMA-LZ (China Meteorological Administration Lanzhou). Three different cloud microphysics schemes, WSM6, LIU-MA, and Thompson, were selected to forecast the warm-sector rainstorm that occurred in eastern Gansu on July 22, 2024, and the results were verified. It was found that when CMA-GFS data was used as the background field, the model accurately predicted the range and intensity of this precipitation event. The CMA-LZ model using the LIU-MA cloud microphysics scheme had better predictions of the precipitation range and intensity than the WSM6 and Thompson schemes. The 24-hour precipitation forecast using the LIU-MA cloud microphysics scheme had higher TS scores and ACC than the other two schemes. Although the predicted heavy rain was more than that using the other two schemes, the forecast of light rain, moderate rain, and heavy rain was closer to the actual situation. The LIU-MA scheme predicted more rain water, cloud water, and graupel particles than the other two schemes, providing favorable conditions for precipitation. In conclusion, the CMA-LZ model, with CMA-GFS data as the background field and the LIU-MA cloud microphysics scheme, starting at 00:00, accurately predicted the warm-sector rainstorm that occurred in eastern Gansu.