基于AI天气大模型驱动的台风预报系统(AI-TRANS)性能评估

DONG Lin ZHAO Dajun XU Hongxiong WANG Hui QU Honghyu HUANG Yiwu NIE Gaozhen XIANG Chunyi WANG Qian LYU Xinyan

  • 摘要: 利用人工智能技术推动科学研究(AI for Science)正在改变传统科学研究的范式,AI天气大模型(简称AI模型)已经实现业务化应用。尽管AI模型在台风路径预报方面已取得显著进步,但在捕捉台风内部复杂物理过程,以及预报台风强度变化,尤其是台风快速加强(RI)及内部结构演变方面,仍存在明显局限。主要是AI模型在分辨台风强度和精细结构时,缺乏足够的分辨率支撑。为了突破这一瓶颈,更精准地预报台风强度和结构演变,采用AI模型驱动区域数值模式成为有效的解决途径。基于这一技术路线,中国气象科学研究院联合国家气象中心研发了基于AI模型驱动的台风预报系统(AI-driven Typhoon Rapid Analysis and Forecasting System,AI-TRANS)。本文利用2024年台风预报业务数据,针对AI-TRANS与其他六个业务模式开展了对比检验工作。结果表明:在台风路径预报方面,AI-TRANS与现有业务模式表现基本持平;而在台风强度和结构预报上则表现出明显优势。该系统集成了AI模型与中尺度数值模式的优点,通过优化AI模型的路径预报稳定性,显著提高了台风登陆预报的准确率;同时,通过AI模型驱动区域模式技术,有效提升了对台风快速加强、极值强度及精细结构等关键指标的预报效果。以2024年影响我国最严重的台风“格美”和“摩羯”为例,AI-TRANS系统成功预报了“格美”在台湾岛东侧路径打转、RI现象及双眼墙结构,同时精准捕捉到台风“摩羯”进入南海后发生的RI、双眼墙形成及眼墙置换过程。这是首次在台风实时预报中,有模式成功预报出台风双眼墙结构及眼墙置换过程,充分证明了AI-TRANS系统在提升台风强度预报准确性和防灾减灾工作中的关键支撑作用。

     

    Abstract: The use of artificial intelligence to advance scientific research (AI for Science) is transforming the traditional scientific research paradigm, and AI weather models have already been deployed in operational applications. Although AI weather models have made significant progress in typhoon track forecasting, there are still obvious limitations in capturing the complex physical processes inside typhoons and predicting the changes in typhoon intensity, especially the rapid intensification (RI) of typhoons and the evolution of their internal structures, mainly because AI weather models lack sufficient resolution support in distinguishing typhoon intensity and fine structure. The use of AI weather model-driven regional model technology can overcome this bottleneck, so as to more accurately forecast typhoon intensity and structural evolution. To this end, the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences and the National Meteorological Center jointly developed the AI-driven Typhoon Rapid Analysis and Forecasting System (AI-TRANS) based on this technical route. In this paper, the forecast results of AI-TRANS are compared with other six operational models by using the data of typhoon forecast in 2024. The results show that the performance of AI-TRANS is basically the same as that of the existing operational model in typhoon track forecasting. The prediction of typhoon intensity and structure shows obvious advantages. The system integrates the advantages of AI weather model and numerical model, and significantly improves the accuracy of typhoon landfall forecast by improving the track forecast stability of AI weather model. At the same time, the AI weather model-driven regional model technology has effectively improved the forecasting effect of key indicators such as typhoon RI, lifetime maximum intensity and fine structure. Taking the severe typhoons Gaemi and Yagi in 2024 as an example, the AI-TRANS system successfully predicted the track rotation, RI process and concentric eyewalls structure of Gaemi in the east side of Taiwan Island, and accurately captured the RI, concentric eyewalls formation and eye wall replacement process after Typhoon Yagi entered the South China Sea. This is the first time that a model has successfully predicted the concentric eyewalls structure and the eyewall replacement process of typhoon in real-time typhoon forecasting, fully demonstrating the critical supporting role of the AI-TRANS system in improving the accuracy of typhoon intensity forecasts and enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation efforts.

     

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