基于卷积神经网络的CMA气候模式预测产品订正方法应用研究

Applied research on the correction method of CMA climate model prediction products based on convolutional neural network

  • 摘要: 气候模式产品的后处理误差订正作为提升预测精度的重要途径,在全球气候业务体系中发挥着不可或缺的作用。为提升气候预测数值模式产品的预测精准度,基于卷积神经网络(CNN)方法,对中国气象局(CMA)第三代气候业务模式预测系统(CMA-CPSv3)2001—2023年逐月输出的中国区域2 m气温、降水及厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)指数等关键业务预测产品开展后处理订正研究。以美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)再分析资料为观测参照,通过CNN多层卷积模型的深度学习训练构建专属订正模型,在独立测试期评估订正前后的预测技巧变化。结果表明:在中国气温与降水预测中,提前1-7个月的预测的相关系数提升0.1—0.5,其中气温的均方根误差(RMSE)降低0.5—1℃(降幅20%—30%);降水相关系数体增加0.1—0.2(增幅达10%—20%),RMSE降低0.1—1 mm/d(降幅3%—30%),东部及东南地区RMSE降幅30%—50%;针对ENSO指数,提前1—7个月预测相关技巧提升5%—7%,提前7个月的 RMSE降低50%。总体而言,基于CNN方法的深度学习订正模型显著提升了气候模式关键产品预测精度,有效解决原模式ENSO指数震荡幅度过大的问题。研究同时明确CNN模型在极端气候事件订正中存在的强度过度平滑局限,并提出多维度未来优化方向,为气候模式业务后处理提供兼具科学性与实用性的技术方案。

     

    Abstract: As an important approach to improving prediction accuracy, the post-process error correction of climate model products plays an indispensable role in global operational climate systems. To enhance the prediction precision of numerical climate prediction models, this study applies the convolutional neural network (CNN) approach to conduct post-process correction on key operational prediction products of the third-generation climate operational prediction system of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), i.e., CMA-CPSv3. The targeted products include monthly 2-meter air temperature, precipitation over China, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index during the period 2001—2023. Using reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as the observational benchmark, a dedicated correction model has been developed through deep learning training of a multi-layer CNN architecture. After model construction, changes in the model performance before and after correction are evaluated during an independent test period. Results indicate that the CNN model significantly improves the prediction accuracy of climate model products. For temperature and precipitation predictions in China, the correlation coefficient of 1—7 months lead predictions is increased by 0.1—0.5. Among these improvements, the root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature is decreased by 0.5—1℃, representing a reduction rate of 20%—30%. For precipitation, the correlation coefficient is increased by 0.1—0.2 (an increase of 10%—20%), and the RMSE is decreased by 0.1—1 mm/d (a reduction rate of 3%—30%), with the RMSE reduction rate reaching 30%—50% in Eastern and Southeastern China. For the ENSO index, the correlation skill for forecasts with a lead time of 1—7 months is enhanced by 5%—7%, and the RMSE at a lead time of 7 months is reduced by 50%, suggesting that the model effectively addresses the issue of excessive oscillation amplitude of the ENSO index in the original CMA-CPSv3 model. Furthermore, this study explicitly identifies a limitation of the CNN model, i.e., excessive intensity smoothing, when applied to the correction of extreme climate events, and proposes multi-dimensional directions for future optimization. It thus provides a technical solution that integrates scientific rigor and practical applicability for operational post-processing of CMA's climate models.

     

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