北太平洋秋季海表温度异常影响冬季大气环流的主模态及其热动力特征

The main mode of winter atmospheric circulation affected by sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific during autumn and its thermal and dynamic characteristics

  • 摘要: 为探讨北太平洋海表温度异常(Surface Sea Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)对中国极端天气的影响,基于1977—2023年逐日和逐月NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,在去除ENSO影响后,运用最大协方差 (Maximum Covariance Analysis,MCA)、回归和相关分析,采取海-气耦合和天气瞬变涡动相结合的热、动力诊断方法,研究了北太平洋SSTA对大气环流的作用及可能的机制,结果指出:初秋(8—10月,ASO)北太平洋SSTA显著影响初冬(10—12月,OND)大气环流(相应的空间分布型为主模态),初秋北太平洋SSTA主模态具有明显的“西负东正偶极子”型分布特征,相应初冬大气环流异常呈“类PNA模态”分布,正、负异常环流中心相比SSTA中心偏北、偏东,其垂直分布为相当正压结构。秋、冬季北太平洋海-气相互作用通过非绝热加热和瞬变强迫耦合,晚夏(7—9月,JAS)“东西偶极子”型大气环流异常波列加深低空阿留申低压,大气冷(暖)平流增强,海表释放(获得)湍流热通量和非绝热加热正(负)异常,相应初秋“东西偶极子”SSTA增强,负SSTA南部海面锋区加强,大气低层斜压活动增强,高空瞬变活动加强;非绝热加热正异常随季节向上传输并产生斜压反应,瞬变活动强迫在高空急流以北(南)产生位势高度负(正)异常和(反)气旋式环流,高空较强。高空瞬变活动强迫随季节增强并向南移动,在其和非绝热加热异常共同作用下,从初秋到初冬,大气环流异常波列由“东西偶极子”转变为“类PNA模态”分布,上下结构和强度上分别经历“相当正压—弱斜压—相当正压”和“强—略有减弱—明显加强” 的转变过程;反之,大气环流异常强迫SSTA由“东西偶极子”转变为“马蹄型”分布,强度上经历了“强—减弱—减弱” 的变化过程。初秋北太平洋SSTA通过持续作用和瞬变活动强迫致使初冬大气环流异常明显增大并达到统计上的显著。初冬“类PNA模态”相应的北半球大气环流异常为一向下游传播到北美的显著波列,对冬季大气内在变率PNA模态的形成具有一定的贡献,当初冬大气环流异常与冬季PNA模态同(反)位相时,PNA模态加强(减弱),PNA模态的强弱变化对中国极端天气的预测具有较强的指示意义。

     

    Abstract: To explore the impact of Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific on extreme weathers in China, the thermal and dynamic diagnostic method that combines ocean-atmosphere coupling and weather transient eddies is adopted to study the impact and possible mechanism of SSTA in the North Pacific on atmospheric circulation. The Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA), regression, and correlation analysis are applied to daily and monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1977 to 2023 with ENSO influences being removed. The results indicate that early autumn (August to October, ASO) North Pacific SSTA significantly affects early winter (Octber to Decenber, OND) atmospheric circulation and the corresponding spatial distribution pattern is the main mode. The leading mode of early autumn North Pacific SSTA has a clear "negative in the west - positive in the east” dipole distribution characteristic, and the corresponding early winter atmospheric circulation anomaly shows a "PNA like" pattern. The positive and negative abnormal circulation centers shift northward and eastward compared to the SSTA centers, and their vertical distributions show an equivalent barotropic structure. The ocean and atmosphere in the North Pacific during autumn and winter is coupled through diabatic heating and transient forcing. In late summer (July to September, JAS), the anomalous wave train of the "east-west dipole" type atmospheric circulation deepens the low-level Aleutian low pressure circulation, strengthens the cold (warm) atmospheric advection, while turbulent heat flux is released (obtained) and positive (negative) diabatic heating anomalies occur. Correspondingly, the "east-west dipole" SSTA in early autumn strengthens, the sea front in the southern part of the negative SSTA area becomes stronger, baroclinic atmospheric activities in the lower atmosphere and transient activities in the upper levels both increase. Positive anomalies of diabatic heating are transported upwards, generating baroclinicity in the atmosphere. The transient activities lead to the formation of negative (positive) potential height anomalies and (anti) cyclonic circulation to the north (south) of the upper-level jet stream, which are stronger in the upper levels. The forcing of upper transient activities increases with time and moves southward, which, combined with diabatic heating anomalies, lead to the change of the anomalous wave train of atmospheric circulation from an "east-west dipole" to a "PNA like" mode distribution. The upper and lower structures and intensities undergo a transition process of "equivalent barotropic–weak baroclinic–equivalent barotropic" and "strong–slightly weakened– significantly strengthened", respectively. On the contrary, the anomalous atmospheric circulation forces the SSTA to transform from an "east-west” dipole to a "horseshoe shaped" pattern, and the SSTA undergoes a "strong–weak–weak" transition in intensity from early autumn to early winter. The North Pacific SSTA in early autumn causes significant increases in atmospheric circulation anomalies in early winter through sustained effects and transient activity forcing, and these anomalies are statistically significant. The atmospheric circulation anomaly corresponding to the "PNA like mode" in early winter is a significant wave train propagating downstream to North America, which contributes to the formation of the intrinsic variability PNA mode in the winter atmosphere. When the atmospheric circulation anomaly in early winter is in the same (opposite) phase with the winter PNA mode, the PNA mode strengthens (weakens), and the changes in the strength of the PNA mode have certain indicative significance for predicting extreme weathers in China.

     

/

返回文章
返回