从讯息论看天气预报的评分和使用

THE EVALUATION AND UTILIZATION OF WEATHER FORECASTING FROM THE VIEWPOINT OF COMMUNICATION THEORY

摘要: 作者利用讯息论中的概念和方法说明现用天气预报评分的缺点和改进方法.讯息量或讯息指数可以作为评分的一种指标.作者又指出对天气预报随便改动必然降低预报的情报价值,因此使用单位不宜任意改动.

Abstract: Introducing the notion and technique of communication theory the author shows that the evaluation of weather forecasting could be improved. The information index is used as an index of evaluation. It is also pointed out that any modification of the forecast done arbitrarily must decrease its value as an information.