叶家东, 程克明, 曾光平. 1981: 闽中雨季区域雨量统计特性及人工影响的效果. 气象学报, (4): 474-482. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1981.051
引用本文: 叶家东, 程克明, 曾光平. 1981: 闽中雨季区域雨量统计特性及人工影响的效果. 气象学报, (4): 474-482. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1981.051
Ye Jia-dong, Cheng Ke-ming, Zeng Guang-ping. 1981: THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AREAL RAINFALL AND THE EFFECTS OF RANDOMIZED CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT IN GUTIAN FUJIAN. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, (4): 474-482. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1981.051
Citation: Ye Jia-dong, Cheng Ke-ming, Zeng Guang-ping. 1981: THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AREAL RAINFALL AND THE EFFECTS OF RANDOMIZED CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT IN GUTIAN FUJIAN. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, (4): 474-482. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1981.051

闽中雨季区域雨量统计特性及人工影响的效果

THE STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AREAL RAINFALL AND THE EFFECTS OF RANDOMIZED CLOUD SEEDING EXPERIMENT IN GUTIAN FUJIAN

  • 摘要: 本文对福建古田水库地区三年人工降水随机试验的效果,应用双样本回归分析方法作了统计检验。结果发现:(1)区域雨量的四次方根变换正态性很好,拟合度达0.94;(2)区域雨量回归分析中,催化单元与对比单元的余方差不一定相等;(3)三年试验目标区平均增雨量20.3%,平均绝对增雨量1.11(毫米/3小时),显著度a=0.05;(4)在各种天气条件下,以锋面天气的催化效果最好,平均增雨量达70.6%(a0.05),平均绝对增雨量2.82(毫米/3小时)。其它天气条件下的平均效果都不显著;(5)自然雨量小时,相对增雨量大,它随自然雨量增大而减小,当对比区自然雨强大于3(毫米/小时)时,催化效果就不显著;(6)催化效果大于20%的区域位于作业点下风方10—50公里,宽约20公里的范围;(7)介乙醛与碘化银的催化效果,差异不显著。

     

    Abstract: From April to June, 1975,1977 and 1978,a randomized cloud seeding experiment with metaldahyde(MA) and silver iodide (AgI) from the ground by the small rockets was carried out in Gutian reservoir area, Fujian province. In this experiment, the design of randomized regression of area was used and the experimental effect was evaluated with the two-sample regression analysis with unequal residusl variances. The experimental objects were mainly the stratiform and cumuliform clouds under the influence of precipitating weather system, and the period of three hours was taken as experimental time unit. The experimental units were selected totaled 101,50 of them were seeded and the others unseeded as controlled by randomized procedure. The statistical analysis indicated that: (1) the nor-mality of the transformation of areal rainfall was very good, which the goodness of fit reached 0.94,and the correlation coefficient of this rainfall index between the two experimental areas exceeded 0.82;(2) the difference between the residual variances of seeding and of control samples in the regression analysis might be significent, hence it was necessary to use the two-sample regression analysis method with unequal residual variances for testing the seeding effect; (3) the average rainfall in the target area(1500 km2) was increased aboud 20.3% by seeding, with a significant level of 0.05 (one side test); (4) the seeding effect under frontal weather was 70.6% in average (a-1),the effect was non-significant; (6) the area of effect exceeding 2000 extended 10-50 km downwind of the operation set, and it's width was about 20 km; (7) the difference between seeding effects of MA and AgI was non-significant, although the amount released once of MA was about ten times larger than AgI.

     

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