梅汛季节江苏省短期降水场的客观、定量预报方案探讨

A SHORT-RANGE OBJECTIVE FORECASTING METHOD FOR THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IN JIANGSU PROVINCE IN MEI-YU PERIOD

摘要: 随着数值预报投入气象业务后,给省一级以下的气象台站提出了一个新问题:如何结合实际预报经验,去正确使用(和加工)数值预报产品(包括中间计算结果),来解决当地天气现象(要素)的客观、定量(自动化)预报。针对梅汛季节江苏省短期降水场,我们试用天气、动力、统计相结合的方案来讨论所提出的问题。

Abstract: In this paper a short range objective forecasting method for the rainfall distristion in Jiangsu Province in Mei-Yu period is suggested. There are threr steps: first, preprocessing of the rainfall fields; second, selection of parameters, and third, establishing precasting equations by statistical methods.