薛定锷方程描述大尺度几率波运动规律的可能性及它在季度预报中的应用
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE DESCRIPTION OF THE BEHAVIOR OF LARGE SCALE PROBABILITY WAVES USING SCHRDINGER EQUATION AND ITS APPLICATION IN SEASONAL PREDICTION
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摘要: 本文利用在一维、定常外场及其作用所产生的动能与势能平衡下的修正的薛定锷方程(Schördinger equation):i(∂ψ/∂t)=A(∂2ψ/∂x2)-iB(∂ψ/∂x) B=B0(∂T/∂x)来描述六个月时间尺度的几率波的运动规律,得出:C=2πA/L-B0(∂T/∂x),当L→∞时C=-B0(∂T/∂x),即六个月几率波的移动方向与外场的温度梯度相反,其大小与梯度绝对值大小成线性关系.这与实际情况相符.换句话说,几率波在冷源区是收缩的,在热源区是扩散的.这个结论在实际中也得到证实.最后我们提出利用六个月距平几率波及修正后的薛定锷方程做季度预报的简单MOS预报方案,并对吉林省1981-1985年春、夏季的气温降水进行了试报,其趋势预报确率为80%.Abstract: In this paper,a modified Schördinger equation,one-dimensional,one-dimensional,constant out field,with balance between the created kinetic energy and potential energy:The corrective Schördinger equation i(∂ψ/∂t)=A(∂2ψ/∂x2)-iB(∂ψ/∂x) B=B0(∂T/∂x)is used to describe the behaior of the probability wabes in the six-monthly temperature and rainfall departure charts.It is found:C=2πA/L-B0(∂T/∂x);L→∞,C=-B0(∂T/∂x),C:wave belocity.A,B:constant.L:wabe length.The direction of probability wave is against the temperature gradient of outfield and the velocity values relate to absolute value of the temperature gradient for the siamonthly anomaly probability waves.The motion of waves conresponds to contraction of cold source and expand of heat source.This conclusion has been verified in practice.We have used these findings in MOS predictions of temperature and rainfall in spring-summer 1981一1985 in Jilin province with encouraging result.
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