作物产量预报的准确性和有效性

THE ACCURACY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF CROP YIELD PREDICTION

摘要: 准确性的高低直接影响到作物产量预报的实用价值及其社会经济效益,是评价产量预报的重要指标.十几年来,我国的农业气象产量预报从无到有、从科研到业务,有了很大进展.预报的准确性常以相对误差来表示,由于不同预报对象(不同农业生态环境、不同地域范围和作物种类)的年际变化相差很大,同样的相对误差,预报的价值及其难度却不同.因此,建立一个客观,合理、通用的产量预报准确性评价指标是非常必要的.本文通过分析不同地域范围和不同作物产量序列的波动特征,认为同样的预报准确度,对不同的预报对象,其价值是不同的.为此,引入预报有效性的概念,作为评价产量预报准确性的统一指标.

Abstract: Based on the fluctuation characteristics of crop yield sequences of differsent regions and different varieties of crop, it Was thought that for the same degree of prediction accuracy, there Was different values for different prediction objects,So it is useful to intruduce the concept of prediction effectiveness as evaluation standards of different kinds of crop yield predictions.