北京冬小麦产量预报的一种建模方案

THE STATISTICS MODEL OF OPERATIONAL PREDICTION FOR WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION IN BEIJING

摘要: 针对农业产量气象预测的各类统计模式中所存在的某些不足,如趋势产量外推的稳定性,预报因子的物理及生物学意义、相关阶段性、多元共线性,回归系数稳定性和剩余产量的处理等,提出了不同的解决办法。在北京冬小麦产量预报试验中收到较好的效果。

Abstract: Some techniques are put forward to overcome the disadvantages in various statistical models of meteorological predication of agricultural production,which are tested through the predication of winter wheat in Beijing and the results are proved to be better than usual.