山西省气候预报研究课题组. 1999: 一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析. 气象学报, (2): 168-179. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1999.015
引用本文: 山西省气候预报研究课题组. 1999: 一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析. 气象学报, (2): 168-179. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1999.015
Shanxi Research Group of Climate Prediction. 1999: AN ANALYSIS ON ONE MONTH NUMERICAL PRODICTION WITH CONSIDERING SST. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, (2): 168-179. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1999.015
Citation: Shanxi Research Group of Climate Prediction. 1999: AN ANALYSIS ON ONE MONTH NUMERICAL PRODICTION WITH CONSIDERING SST. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, (2): 168-179. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb1999.015

一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析

AN ANALYSIS ON ONE MONTH NUMERICAL PRODICTION WITH CONSIDERING SST

  • 摘要: 根据陈隆勋等对海温月季变化研究的结果提出除了从冬到春的过渡月份外,SST距平的相邻月的月际变化不大。在此基础上,选了1996年6月并利用CCM1动力气候模式作了月数值预报。在预报中,利用1996年6月1日00Z中国国家气象中心T64的客观分析资料作初值,利用1996年5月的SST距平加到6月气候SST作为6月的SST,作了一个月数值预报。结果表明,考虑了SST变化的数值预报优于用气候海温作的数值预报。前者的500hPa高度场预报距平、850hPa纬向风预报距平、中国地区气温预报距平和降水预报距平分布均十分接近于实际观测分布。

     

    Abstract: Based on a result that the variation of SSTA between the adjcent month is small, an one-month numerical predication of June, 1996 is calculated by using CCM1/NCAR climate model. In the prediction, the initial value is taken from the objective analy sics of T64 grid system of China National Meteorological Center for 00Z the first of June, 1996. The SST distribution of June, 1996 is computed from June climate SST adding the SS-TA of May, 1996. For comparison, an one-month prediction using the climate June SST is also calculated. It is shown that the prediction results of changed SST are greatly better than that using the climate SST. In the formercase, the predicted deviation of the 500 hPa geopo tential height in Norther Hemisphere, the zonal wind velocity at 850 hP a, the predicted devation of surface air temperature and the predicten percentage of rainf all deviation are quite same as that of observed.

     

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