2003年淮河流域大水期间体积降水量的研究

A STUDY OF VOLUMETRIC PRECIPITATION DURING THE HUAIHE RIVER BASIN FLOODS IN 2003

摘要: 针对2003年梅雨期淮河流域大水提出了体积降水量的概念及其计算方法,在计算出淮河流域和其各子流域逐日和总体积降水量的基础上,将体积降水量与水文站的水位和流量进行了对比分析。结果表明:水位对累计体积降水量有较好的即时响应,流量对体积降水量有较好的延迟响应。另外,讨论了流域体积降水量的预报问题,用国内外数值天气预报产品和中央气象台指导预报产品,进行了流域体积降水量预报试验,并对预报结果进行了检验分析。结果表明:在目前天气预报水平条件下,利用数值天气预报和中央气象台业务预报产品制作体积降水量是可行的,能够延长洪水预报的预见期;而且,数值天气预报产品在预报体积降水量方面有明显的优势,因此可以直接利用数值天气预报产品进行体积降水量的客观预报,为防汛工作提供重要的依据。

Abstract: The concept of volumetric precipitation (V) and its calculation methods are studied in this paper based on the Huaihe River Basin Floods in 2003.V is defined as to tal precipitation amount fromsky at a volumetric amount over an area A:V=∫AP(x,y)dA =∫∫P(x,y)dx dyThe unit of V is m3.V is important information not only to hydrology,flood control and water resource management,but also to verification of precipitation forecasts of numerical weather prediction models and to climate research.