Evaluation of three different gust diagnostic schemes in the CMA-BJ for gale forecasting over Beijing
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摘要: 数值模式预报是阵风预报的重要途径之一，对“中国气象局北京快速更新循环数值预报系统（简称CMA北京模式）”中AFWA、UPP、IUM三种阵风诊断方案在北京地区大风预报中的性能进行了分析评估。两次大风过程的分析以及各季节大风预报的批量试验检验结果显示：三种方案的阵风预报存在明显差异，IUM方案的阵风预报能力优势明显。IUM方案对冷空气大风和雷暴大风预警都有较好的指示意义。其对2020年3月18日冷空气大风过程中大风起始时间、大风区位置和演变以及过程极大风速均有较好的预报效果，对2020年8月2日雷暴大风过程中大风区范围预报偏大且位置存在偏差，但对大风预警的指示意义最强。IUM方案的阵风风速预报整体偏强，但对各个季节达到或超过5级阵风的等级预报较为准确。总体而言，IUM方案对北京地区大风预报性能较好，基于该方案制作的阵风预报产品可为大风预报提供有力支撑。Abstract: Numerical prediction is one of the important ways to forecast gust. This study analyzed and evaluated the performance of the three gust diagnostic schemes (AFWA, UPP and IUM) in the CMA-BJ for gale forecasting over Beijing. Subjective analysis on two extreme gale processes as well as objective validation on batch experiments of each season indicated that there are significant differences in the gust forecasting using the three schemes, and the forecasting with the IUM scheme shows significant advantages. The IUM scheme performs relatively well on forecasting gales associated with both cold air and thunderstorms. For the gale on 18 March 2020, which was induced by cold air invasion, the scheme shows good performance on the forecast of starting and ending time, the location and evolution, and the maximum value during the entire period of the gale. For the gale on 2 August 2020, which was generated by a thunderstorm, the scheme overestimates the gale area and shows certain biases in the location of the gale. However, the scheme issues warning for gale, which is the most significant. Moreover, the gust speed predicted by the IUM scheme has positive biases at all seasons, but the forecasts of gales equal to or greater than level 5 are more consistent with observations. In general, the IUM scheme performs better than the other two schemes for the gale forecasting over Beijing, and can provide strong support for the gale forecasting.
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Key words:
- CMA-BJ /
- Gust diagnosis /
- Gale with cold air /
- Gale with thunderstorms /
- Batch experiments
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图 1 CMA北京模式预报区域和模式地形 （色阶，单位：m）
Figure 1. Two nested domains and terrain height （shaded，unit：m） of the CMA-BJ
图 2 2020年3月18日08时至19日08时北京地区20个国家级气象站逐时 （a） 2 min平均风速和 （b） 阵风 （蓝色点实线代表平均值，对应黑色箱线图分别显示了最小值、下四分位数、中位数、上四分位数和最大值）
Figure 2. Hourly （a） 2 min mean surface wind speed and （b） gust at 20 national weather stations in Beijing from 08：00 BT 18 March to 08：00 BT 19 March 2020 （the blue dotted-lines indicate the average values；the black boxes indicate the minimum，lower quartile，median，upper quartile，and maximum values）
图 3 观测和预报的2020年3月18日08时至19日08时北京观象台逐时 （a） 2 min平均风及 （b） 阵风
Figure 3. Observations and forecasts of hourly （a） 2 min mean surface wind and （b） gust at Beijing Observatory station from 08：00 BT 18 March to 08：00 BT 19 March 2020
图 4 2020年3月18日08时至19日08时北京地区20个国家级气象站的过程阵风 （单位：级） （a. 观测，b. CMA-BJ_IUM，c. CMA-BJ_UPP，d. CMA-BJ_AFWA）
Figure 4. Gusts at 20 national weather stations in Beijing from 08:00 BT 18 to 08:00 BT 19 March 2020 （unit：level）（a. observations，b. CMA-BJ_IUM forecasts，c. CMA-BJ_UPP forecasts，d. CMA-BJ_AFWA forecasts）
图 5 观测和预报的2020年3月18日08时至19日08时汤河口 （54412）、朝阳 （54433） 和大兴 （54594） 站逐时阵风 （a. 观测，b. CMA-BJ_IUM，c. CMA-BJ_UPP，d. CMA-BJ_AFWA；实线为阵风数值，虚线为阵风峰值出现时刻）
Figure 5. Observations and forecasts of hourly gust at Tanghekou （54412），Chaoyang （54433），and Daxing （54594） stations from 08：00 BT 18 to 08：00 BT 19 March 2020 （a. observations，b. CMA-BJ_IUM，c. CMA-BJ_UPP，d. CMA-BJ_AFWA；Solid lines indicate the gust speed，dashed lines indicate the times when the maximum gust appeared）
图 6 观测和预报的大风开始阶段逐时阵风 （单位：级） （a—c. 2020年3月18日14、15和16时观测，d—f. 2020年3月18日11、12和13时CMA-BJ_IUM预报）
Figure 6. Observations and forecasts of hourly gust at the beginning of the gale （unit：level）（a─c. observations at 14：00 to 16：00 BT 18 March 2020，d─f. forecasts at 11：00 to 13：00 BT 18 March 2020 by CMA-BJ_IUM）
图 7 观测和预报的大风结束阶段逐时阵风 （单位：级）（a—c. 2020年3月18日21、22和23时观测，d—f. 2020年3月18日21、22和23时CMA-BJ_IUM预报）
Figure 7. Observations and forecasts of hourly gust at the end of the gale （unit：level） （a─c. observations at 21：00 to 23：00 BT 18 March 2020，d─f. forecasts at 21：00 to 23：00 BT 18 March 2020 by CMA-BJ_IUM）
图 8 观测的2020年8月2日18时至22时北京地区 （a） 极大风 （单位：级） 和 （b） 累计降水量 （单位：mm）
Figure 8. Observations of （a） gust （unit：level） and （b） accumulated precipitation （unit：mm） over Beijing from 18：00 to 22：00 BT 2 August 2020
图 9 观测和预报的2020年8月2日19 （a）、20 （b） 和21 （c） 时雷达反射率因子 （色阶，单位：dBz） 及地面风场 （风羽）（a1─c1. 观测，a2─c2. CMA北京模式）
Figure 9. Observations and forecasts of radar reflectivity （shaded，unit：dBz） and surface wind （wind barbs） at 19：00 to 21：00 BT 2 August 2020 （a1─c1. observations，a2─c2. CMA-BJ）
图 10 观测和预报的2020年8月2日20 （a—d） 和21 （e—h） 时北京地区阵风 （单位：级）（a、e. 观测，b、f. CMA-BJ_IUM，c、g. CMA-BJ_UPP，d、h. CMA-BJ_AFWA）
Figure 10. Observations and forecasts gust （unit：level） in Beijing at 20：00 to 21：00 BT 2 August 2020 （a，e. observations；b，f. CMA-BJ_IUM；c，g. CMA-BJ_UPP；d，h. CMA-BJ_AFWA）
图 11 2020年5、8、11月和2021年2月北京地区20个国家级气象站逐时阵风预报 （a） 平均偏差和 （b） 平均绝对偏差 （红色、蓝色和绿色分别代表IUM、UPP和AFWA阵风诊断方案，对应箱线图显示了最小值、下四分位数、中位数、上四分位数和最大值；对应黑点代表平均值）
Figure 11. （a） Mean biases and （b） mean absolute biases of hourly gust forecasts at 20 national weather stations in Beijing in May，August and November of 2020 and February of 2021 （The red，blue and green colors indicate the results for the IUM，the UPP and the AFWA schemes，respectively；the boxes indicate the minimum，lower quartile，median，upper quartile，and maximum values；the black dots indicate the mean values）
图 12 不同季节北京地区20个国家级气象站逐时阵风预报的TS评分和BIAS评分 （a. 2020年5月，b. 2020年8月，c. 2020年11月，d. 2021年2月；实曲线对应TS评分，虚斜线和对角斜线对应BIAS评分，数值对应上、右坐标数字；圆点、三角和菱形分别对应不同阈值；红色、蓝色和绿色分别对应IUM、UPP和AFWA方案）
Figure 12. TS and BIAS scores of hourly gust forecasts at 20 national weather stations in Beijing （a. May 2020，b. August 2020， c. November 2020， d. February 2021； the solid curves correspond to TS score and the dashed slashes correspond to BIAS score； the dots，triangles and diamonds correspond to different thresholds；the red，blue and green colors correspond to the IUM，the UPP and the AFWA schemes，respectively）
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