马悦,信飞,卢楚翰. 2022. 长江三角洲梅汛期降水与大气环流季节内演变的关系及延伸期预报. 气象学报,80(2):190-204. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.002
引用本文: 马悦,信飞,卢楚翰. 2022. 长江三角洲梅汛期降水与大气环流季节内演变的关系及延伸期预报. 气象学报,80(2):190-204. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.002
Ma Yue, Xin Fei, Lu Chuhan. 2022. Meiyu in the Yangtze River Delta and its extended-range forecast associated with intraseasonal evolution of atmospheric circulation. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(2):190-204. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.002
Citation: Ma Yue, Xin Fei, Lu Chuhan. 2022. Meiyu in the Yangtze River Delta and its extended-range forecast associated with intraseasonal evolution of atmospheric circulation. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(2):190-204. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.002

长江三角洲梅汛期降水与大气环流季节内演变的关系及延伸期预报

Meiyu in the Yangtze River Delta and its extended-range forecast associated with intraseasonal evolution of atmospheric circulation

  • 摘要: 基于1981—2020年长江三角洲(简称长三角)地区62个国家基本气象站的逐日降水量资料及NCEP/NCAR全球大气逐日再分析资料,分析了长三角地区梅汛期降水与前期大气环流季节内协同演变的关系,在此基础上利用改进的时空投影方法(STPM)构建了针对该地区梅汛期降水的延伸期预报模型。结果表明:(1)长三角地区梅汛期降水存在显著的10—80 d季节内振荡,且振荡强度有明显的空间差异和年际变化,降水量越大对应的季节内振荡越强。(2)梅汛期降水发生前15—10天大气环流发生季节内调整,热带低频对流活跃并出现经向传播,在西北太平洋、长江流域至黄淮—日本海的对流层低层(高层)激发反气旋(气旋)—气旋(反气旋)—反气旋(气旋)的低频波列,建立起低层辐合、高层辐散的环流配置,长三角地区对流增强;大气低频响应导致南亚高压季节内南北振荡和东西进退明显,西太平洋副热带高压在长三角东南侧稳定维持,上述低、中和高纬度环流的季节内动态协同演变共同促进了该地区梅汛期低频降水的发生。(3)将影响梅汛期降水的前期大气环流季节内动态演变过程作为预报因子,基于STPM方法训练得到长三角梅汛期降水的延伸期逐候预报模型,近10年的独立回报评估显示该模型对梅汛期未来10—25 d降水有较高的预报技巧。

     

    Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data obtained from 62 national basic meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset from 1981 to 2020, the relationship of intraseasonal precipitation in Meiyu season with the evolution of atmospheric circulation over the YRD is studied. The extended-range precipitation forecast model based on atmospheric circulation evolution is then constructed by using improved Spatial-temporal Projection Method (STPM). 10—80 d intraseasonal oscillation is found in the daily variation of Meiyu precipitation, and the amplitude differs in spatial and temporal scales. The stronger intraseasonal oscillation denotes heavier precipitation. From 15 to 10 d lead, the tropical intraseasonal convections become active with meridional propagations. The anomalously strong convections over the YRD enhance. The intraseasonal anticyclone (cyclone) — cyclone (anticyclone) — anticyclone (cyclone) wave train is triggered in the lower troposphere (upper troposphere), allowing divergence (convergence) to gradually establish. The intraseasonal atmosphere response leads to a stable Western Pacific subtropical high and obvious north-south and east-west oscillations of the South Asian High. All these cooperative intraseasonal changes of atmosphere from different levels and latitudes accelerate the development of precipitation. Based on the dynamic intraseasonal evolution of atmospheric circulation, the extended-range pentadly precipitation forecast model for the Meiyu season is constructed by using STPM. The independent evaluation of historic forecasts shows that the model has useful forecast skills at lead time of 10—25 d in the YRD.

     

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