瞿安祥,麻素红,张进,刘艳. 2022. CMA-GFS全球预报系统中的台风初始化. 气象学报,80(2):269-279. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.014
引用本文: 瞿安祥,麻素红,张进,刘艳. 2022. CMA-GFS全球预报系统中的台风初始化. 气象学报,80(2):269-279. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.014
Qu Anxiang, Ma Suhong, Zhang Jin, Liu Yan. 2022. Typhoon initialization in the CMA global forecast system. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(2):269-279. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.014
Citation: Qu Anxiang, Ma Suhong, Zhang Jin, Liu Yan. 2022. Typhoon initialization in the CMA global forecast system. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(2):269-279. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.014

CMA-GFS全球预报系统中的台风初始化

Typhoon initialization in the CMA global forecast system

  • 摘要: 在CMA-GFS(CMA Global Forecast System)全球四维变分资料同化系统(4DVar)基础上,参照BDA(Bogus Data Assimilation)方法,建立了一个全球模式台风初始化方案。该方案通过4DVar同化窗口吸收诊断处理后的1 h间隔台风中心定位及中心气压信息,利用模式动力物理约束产生台风环流。同时,考虑到模式对台风的分辨能力,中心气压数据误差采用动态调整技术。2016年西北太平洋22个台风的试验表明,新方案不仅可以促进初始场中台风环流的生成,还可以显著减小CMA-GFS全球预报系统的台风路径和强度预报平均误差,具有业务应用前景。

     

    Abstract: A global model typhoon initialization scheme is developed based on the global four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) of CMA global forecast system (CMA-GFS) with reference to the BDA (Bogus Data Assimilation) method. The scheme assimilates 1 h interval information of typhoon center location and central sea level pressure diagnosed by interpolation method, and generates typhoon circulation using the model dynamic physical constraints within the 4DVar assimilation window. At the same time, errors in the central sea surface pressure are dynamically corrected using a technique that takes into account the model's ability to describe typhoon circulation. Experiments of 22 typhoon cases that occurred in the Northwest Pacific in 2016 show that the new scheme not only promotes the generation of typhoon circulation in the initial field, but also significantly reduces errors in the mean typhoon track and intensity predicted by the CMA global forecast system. Therefore, this scheme has a potential for operational application.

     

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