熊敏诠,冯文,刘凑华. 2022. 冬奥延庆赛区风的预报技巧比较分析. 气象学报,80(2):289-303. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.018
引用本文: 熊敏诠,冯文,刘凑华. 2022. 冬奥延庆赛区风的预报技巧比较分析. 气象学报,80(2):289-303. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.018
Xiong Minquan, Feng Wen, Liu Couhua. 2022. Analysis of wind prediction skills for the Winter Olympics playing area in Yanqing Beijing. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(2):289-303. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.018
Citation: Xiong Minquan, Feng Wen, Liu Couhua. 2022. Analysis of wind prediction skills for the Winter Olympics playing area in Yanqing Beijing. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(2):289-303. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2022.018

冬奥延庆赛区风的预报技巧比较分析

Analysis of wind prediction skills for the Winter Olympics playing area in Yanqing Beijing

  • 摘要: 为了提高2 min平均的10 m风预报精度,开展了多种建模和检验方法比较。根据欧洲数值中心集合预报系统产品及北京海陀山的5个测站资料,使用一元回归、岭回归、神经网络、粒子群-神经网络等方法建模,进行2021年2月逐日的未来3天6 h间隔预报误差订正,并从多个角度分析预报精度差异。结果为:(1)系统误差、预报准确率检验表明,建模订正后的预报误差均明显减小。(2)频率关系图揭示,回归法在弱风区(大概率事件)有较好的订正能力,神经网络法在不同风速区都有正向的订正效果。(3)大风过程预报的对比显示,建模方法能有效订正风向的预报。

     

    Abstract: In order to improve the forecast accuracy of 10 m wind, multiple models and verification methods are applied. Based on the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, the wind predict accuracy from direct model outputs at five stations over the Haituo mountain in Beijing is compared with that from four post-processing methods including one-variable regression, ridge regression, neural networks and particle swarm optimization-neural networks. The differences among these forecasts are discussed based on several verification methods. First, the verifications of systematic error and forecasting accuracy show that the prediction errors from regress and neural networks methods are much smaller than that from direct model outputs. Second, the wind frequency diagrams show that the forecast accuracy is improvement by regress methods in weak wind condition and by neural networks in the whole wind speed variance. The difference in the wind forecast varies greatly with wind direction for the different post-processing methods. The bias of wind direction forecast from direct model output in strong wind weather can be corrected by regress and neural networks methods. Finally, possible methods for improving wind forecast accuracy in complex terrain region are discussed.

     

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