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沿海城市极端气温对脑卒中死亡的滞后定量影响

鹿文涵 谷少华 孙仕强 张程明 朱宪春

鹿文涵,谷少华,孙仕强,张程明,朱宪春. 2022. 沿海城市极端气温对脑卒中死亡的滞后定量影响. 气象学报,80(3):1-12 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.030
引用本文: 鹿文涵,谷少华,孙仕强,张程明,朱宪春. 2022. 沿海城市极端气温对脑卒中死亡的滞后定量影响. 气象学报,80(3):1-12 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.030
Lu Wenhan, Gu Shaohua, Sun Shiqiang, Zhang Chengming, Zhu Xianchun. 2022. Quantitative lagged effects of extreme temperature on stroke deaths in a coastal city. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(3):1-12 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.030
Citation: Lu Wenhan, Gu Shaohua, Sun Shiqiang, Zhang Chengming, Zhu Xianchun. 2022. Quantitative lagged effects of extreme temperature on stroke deaths in a coastal city. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(3):1-12 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.030

沿海城市极端气温对脑卒中死亡的滞后定量影响

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.030
基金项目: 宁波市科技公益类计划项目(2019C50003)、宁波市自然科学基金项目(2019A610379)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    鹿文涵,主要从事天气预报和健康气象方面的研究。E-mail:76292651@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    孙仕强,主要从事天气预报和环境气象方面的研究。E-mail:419133569@qq.com

  • 中图分类号: P49

Quantitative lagged effects of extreme temperature on stroke deaths in a coastal city

  • 摘要: 当夏季和冬季出现极端气温时,脑卒中死亡有明显增加,但不同地区极端气温对脑卒中死亡的影响不同。以宁波为沿海城市的代表,采用2013—2019年宁波市脑卒中死亡病例和同期的气温数据,利用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),研究了极端气温对不同群组脑卒中死亡的滞后定量影响。结果表明:(1)极端高温对除低龄组外的其他人群脑卒中死亡效应趋势基本一致,即累积相对危险度(RR)的95%置信区间(95%CI)随时间延长增大,热累积促进效应随时间增强,对全部人群滞后3 d内的脑卒中死亡有促进效应。40℃滞后0—1 d、0—2 d和0—3 d累积相对危险度(95%CI)分别为1.29(1.17—1.43)、1.38(1.22—1.55)和1.41(1.25—1.60)。(2)极端低温对不同人群脑卒中死亡促进效应趋势不同,对于全部人群,当天没有明显的促进效应,滞后第3到4天开始有明显的促进效应,累积相对危险度(95%CI)随时间增大,低温累积促进效应随时间增强,滞后15 d后对脑卒中死亡无明显的促进效应。−4℃滞后0—5 d、0—10 d和0—15 d累积相对危险度(95%CI)分别为1.23(1.00—1.50)、1.61(1.22—2.12)和1.95(1.39—2.75)。(3)极端气温对高龄组(≥65岁)脑卒中死亡的促进风险更高,对低龄组没有明显的促进或抑制效应。极端高温对男性热累积促进效应更强,极端低温对女性累积促进效应更强。

     

  • 图 1  不同滞后时间极端高温对不同群组 (a. 全体,b1. ≥65岁,b2. 0—64岁,c1. 男性,c2. 女性) 脑卒中死亡的单日相对危险度 (95%CI)

    Figure 1.  Three dimensional diagram of single-day relative risk (RR) value (95%CI) of extreme high temperature on stroke death in different lag time for different groups (a. all,b1. ≥65,b2. 0—64,c1. male,c2. famale)

    图 2  不同滞后时间下极端高温不同群组 (a. 全体,b1. ≥65岁,b2. 0—64岁,c1. 男性,c2. 女性) 脑卒中死亡的累积相对危险度 (95%CI)

    Figure 2.  Cumulative relative risk value of extreme high temperature on stroke death in different lag time for different groups (95%CI) (a. all,b1. ≥65,b2. 0—64,c1. male,c2. famale)

    图 3  不同滞后时间极端低温对不同群组 (a. 全体,b1. ≥65岁,b2. 0—64岁,c1. 男性,c2. 女性) 脑卒中死亡的单日相对危险度(95%CI)

    Figure 3.  Three dimensional diagram of single-day relative risk (95% CI) of extreme low temperature on stroke death in different lag time for different groups (a. all,b1. ≥65,b2. 0—64,c1. male,c2. famale)

    图 4  不同滞后时间下极端低温不同群组 (a. 全体,b1. ≥65岁,b2. 0—64岁,c1. 男性,c2.女性) 脑卒中死亡的累积相对危险度(95%CI)

    Figure 4.  Cumulative relative risk (95%CI) of extreme low temperature on stroke death in different lag time for different groups (a. all,b1. ≥65,b2. 0—64,c1. male,c2. famale)

    表  1  2013—2019年宁波市气象要素、空气污染要素和脑卒中病例统计

    Table  1.   Descriptive statistics of meteorological factors,air pollution factors and stroke cases in Ningbo from 2013 to 2019

    指标平均值±标准差最小值25%分位数中位数75%分位数最大值
     极端高温(℃)22.42±8.96−2.5015.0523.3029.4042.10
     极端低温(℃)14.67±23.33−6.707.3015.3022.1029.40
     相对湿度(%)75.45±12.1628.0068.0076.0085.00100.00
     PM2.5(μg/m348.78±34.060.0027.0041.0060.00458.00
     日死亡人数18.13±5.783.0014.0017.0022.0042.00
     日低龄组死亡人数(<65岁)1.52±1.260.001.001.002.008.00
     日高龄组死亡人数(≥65岁)16.61±5.533.0013.0016.0020.0039.00
     日男性死亡人数9.48±3.431.007.009.0012.0027.00
     日女性死亡人数8.65±3.430.006.008.0011.0025.00
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  35—40℃不同群组在有效滞后天数内对脑卒中死亡的累积相对危险度(95%CI)

    Table  2.   Cumulative relative risk (95%CI) of stroke death for different groups at 35—40℃ within effective lag days

    群组累积滞后天数
    00—1 d0—2 d0—3 d
    35℃全部人群1.09(1.06—1.12)1.15(1.10—1.21)1.19(1.13—1.26)1.21(1.14—1.28)
    ≥65岁1.09(1.06—1.12)1.15(1.10—1.20)1.19(1.12—1.26)1.20(1.13—1.28)
    0—64岁
    1.12(1.07—1.17)1.21(1.12—1.30)1.26(1.15—1.37)
    1.05(1.02—1.09)1.09(1.03—1.16)1.12(1.04—1.20)
    36℃全部人群1.10(1.06—1.14)1.18(1.11—1.24)1.22(1.15—1.31)1.24(1.16—1.34)
    ≥65岁1.10(1.06—1.14)1.18(1.11—1.24)1.23(1.15—1.31)1.24(1.16—1.34)
    0—64岁
    1.14(1.08—1.19)1.24(1.15—1.34)1.30(1.18—1.43)
    1.06(1.02—1.11)1.11(1.03—1.19)1.14(1.05—1.24)
    37℃全部人群1.11(1.07—1.16)1.20(1.13—1.28)1.26(1.17—1.36)1.28(1.19—1.41)
    ≥65岁1.12(1.07—1.16)1.21(1.13—1.29)1.26(1.17—1.37)1.28(1.18-1.40)
    0—64岁
    1.16(1.09—1.22)1.28(1.17—1.40)1.35(1.21—1.50)
    1.07(1.02—1.13)1.13(1.03—1.23)1.16(1.05—1.29)
    38℃全部人群1.13(1.08—1.18)1.23(1.14—1.33)1.30(1.18—1.42)1.32(1.20—1.46)
    ≥65岁1.13(1.08—1.19)1.24(1.14—1.34)1.30(1.19—1.43)1.33(1.21—1.47)
    0—64岁
    1.18(1.10—1.25)1.31(1.19—1.46)1.40(1.24—1.58)
    1.08(1.01—1.15)1.15(1.03—1.27)1.19(1.05—1.34)
    39℃全部人群1.14(1.09—1.21)1.26(1.16—1.37)1.33(1.20—1.48)1.37(1.22—1.53)
    ≥65岁1.15(1.09—1.22)1.27(1.16—1.39)1.35(1.21—1.50)
    0—64岁
    1.20(1.11—1.29)1.35(1.21—1.52)1.45(1.26—1.67)
    1.09(1.01—1.18)1.16(1.03—1.31)1.21(1.05—1.40)
    40℃全部人群1.16(1.09—1.24)1.29(1.17—1.43)1.38(1.22—1.55)1.41(1.25—1.60)
    ≥65岁1.17(1.10—1.25)1.30(1.18—1.45)1.39(1.23—1.59)
    0—64岁
    1.22(1.12—1.20)1.40(1.22—1.59)1.51(1.29—1.77)
    1.10(1.01—1.20)1.18(1.03—1.36)1.24(1.05—1.46)
     注:“—”表示不具有统计学意义。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  −4—0℃不同群组在有效滞后天数内对脑卒中死亡的累积相对危险度(95%CI)

    Table  3.   Cumulative relative risk values of stroke death for different groups at −4—0℃ within effective lag days (95%CI)

    群组累积滞后天数
    00—5 d0—10 d0—15 d
    0℃全部人群1.10(0.91—1.33)1.44(1.12—1.85)
    ≥65岁1.08(0.89—1.32)1.42(1.10—1.85)1.74(1.26—2.40)
    0—64岁
    1.07(1.02—1.11)1.36(1.14—1.62)
    1.05(0.81—1.36)1.42(1.01—2.01)1.79(1.31—2.45)
    −1℃全部人群1.13(0.94—1.37)1.48(1.15—1.91)1.79(1.29—2.49)
    ≥65岁1.11(0.91—1.36)1.46(1.12—1.91)
    0—64岁
    1.07(1.03—1.12)1.40(1.16—1.68)
    1.07(0.82—1.39)1.46(1.03—2.07)
    −2℃全部人群1.16(0.96—1.41)1.52(1.17—1.97)1.84(.33—2.54)
    ≥65岁1.14(0.93—1.40)1.50(1.15—1.97)1.84(1.31—2.58)
    0—64岁
    1.08(1.03—1.13)1.44(1.19—1.74)
    1.09(0.83—1.42)1.49(1.04—2.13)
    −3℃全部人群1.19(0.98—1.46)1.56(1.20—2.04)1.90(1.36—2.64)
    ≥65岁1.17(0.95—1.44)1.55(1.17—2.04)1.89(1.34—2.68)
    0—64岁
    1.09(1.04—1.15)1.48(1.22—1.81)
    1.11(0.85—1.46)1.52(1.06—2.20)
    −4℃全部人群1.23(1.00—1.50)1.61(1.22—2.12)1.95(1.39—2.75)
    ≥65岁1.21(0.98—1.49)1.59(1.19—2.11)1.95(1.36—2.79)
    0—64岁
    1.10(1.04—1.16)1.53(1.24—1.89)
    1.14(0.86—1.51)1.56(1.07—2.28)
     注:“—”表示不具有统计学意义。
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-12-22
  • 修回日期:  2022-03-20
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-04-12

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