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石家庄高温热浪、闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响

付桂琴 陆倩 张亚男

付桂琴,陆倩,张亚男. 2022. 石家庄高温热浪、闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响. 气象学报,80(3):1-8 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.032
引用本文: 付桂琴,陆倩,张亚男. 2022. 石家庄高温热浪、闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响. 气象学报,80(3):1-8 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.032
Fu Guiqin, Lu Qian, Zhang Yanan. 2022. Analysis of the influence of high temperature, heatwave and sweltering weather on the death number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Shijiazhuang. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(3):1-8 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.032
Citation: Fu Guiqin, Lu Qian, Zhang Yanan. 2022. Analysis of the influence of high temperature, heatwave and sweltering weather on the death number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Shijiazhuang. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(3):1-8 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.032

石家庄高温热浪、闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.032
基金项目: 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0602004)、国家自然科学基金项目(4217584)、河北省健康气象研发项目(FW202150)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    付桂琴,主要从事健康气象等应用气象研究。E-mail:fgq84@tom.com

  • 中图分类号: P49

Analysis of the influence of high temperature, heatwave and sweltering weather on the death number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Shijiazhuang

  • 摘要: 评价高温、热浪、闷热不同热感天气暴露对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响。采用广义相加模型(GAM)、平滑曲线阈值效应方法,在控制了时间序列长期趋势、季节效应、节假日效应的混合影响后,分析了2010—2016年的6—8月石家庄市高温、热浪、闷热不同热感天气暴露对心脑血管疾病死亡人数的影响关系,并分析了男女性别的分人群效应。研究期间收集到心脑血管死亡总计6552人,日均死亡10.2人,日死亡最多为40.0人。对应期间出现高温日98 d,热浪日58 d,闷热日79 d。相对于非高温、热浪、闷热日,高温、热浪、闷热天气对心脑血管死亡人数影响的相对危险度分别为1.086(95%CI:1.013—1.164)、1.252(95%CI:1.101—1.442)、1.100(95%CI:1.020—1.185),其最大滞后效应分别为3 d、1 d、0 d,对应死亡人数增加的风险分别为12.2%、31.8%、10.0%,且对女性的影响风险均大于男性。高温、热浪、闷热天气都可导致心脑血管疾病死亡风险的增加,归因滞后1 d热浪死亡的风险最大,归因闷热天气死亡的风险未发现滞后效应,建议依据不同热感天气有针对性地建立健康风险管理和应对机制。

     

  • 图 1  2010—2016年6—8月石家庄平均气温 (a)、最高气温(b)、闷热指数 (c) 与心脑血管死亡人数的关系曲线 (黑色实线为死亡人数的变化,虚线为其95%信度变化)

    Figure 1.  Variation curves of average temperature (a),maximum temperature (b),sweltering heat index (c) and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths in Shijiazhuang from June to August,2010 to 2016 (The black solid line represents the number of deaths,and the dashed line represents its 95%CI)

    表  1  2010—2016年6—8月石家庄心脑血管死亡人数及气象要素统计特征

    Table  1.   Statistical characteristics of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths and meteorological elements in Shijiazhuang from June to August,2010 to 2016

    均值标准差MinP25P50P75Max
    心脑血管死亡人数总人数(人)10.2 5.3 0.0 6.010.014.040.0
    男性(人) 5.6 3.2 0.0 3.0 5.0 8.021.0
    女性(人) 4.5 3.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 7.019.0
    气象要素    T(℃)27.0 2.619.425.227.228.834.3
    Tg(℃)31.8 3.321.129.632.134.041.8
    RH(%)65.015.819.054.066.077.099.0
    I76.0 3.466.573.676.278.386.8
     *注:P25为第25%分位值,依此类推。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2010—2016年6—8月石家庄高温、热浪、闷热日数及对应死亡人数特征

    Table  2.   Statistical characteristics of high temperature,heatwave,and sweltering weather days and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths in Shijiazhuang from June to August,2010 to 2016

    天气分类日数(d)占比(%)年均日数(d)死亡人数日均值
    总人数(人)男(人)女(人)
    非高温54684.878.0 9.65.34.3
    高温  9815.214.013.37.36.0
    非热浪58691.083.710.05.64.5
    热浪  58 9.0 8.313.57.56.0
    非闷热56587.780.7 9.75.44.3
    闷热  7912.311.313.97.66.3
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2010—2016年6—8月石家庄高温、热浪、闷热天气对心脑血管疾病死亡人数及不同性别影响的相对危险度及95%可信区间(95%CI)

    Table  3.   Relative risk and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for the effect of high temperature,heat wave and sweltering weather on the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths and gender in Shijiazhuang from June to August,2010 to 2016

    项目要素RR(95%CI)
    总人数男性女性
    连续变量T(℃)1.009 (0.999—1.018)0.999 (0.987—1.012)1.020 (1.006—1.035)*
    Tg(℃)1.008 (1.001—1.016)*1.000 (0.990—1.010)1.019 (1.008—1.031)*
    I1.006 (0.999—1.014)0.999 (0.989—1.009)1.015 (1.004—1.027)*
    阈值区间T≥29.0(℃)1.064 (1.006—1.125)*1.034 (0.958—1.116)*1.099 (1.014—1.192)*
    I≥801.076 (1.024—1.130)*1.082 (1.013—1.156)*1.069 (0.994—1.150)*
    高温1.086 (1.013—1.164)*1.016 (0.924— 1.117)1.177 (1.063—1.303)*
    热浪1.252 (1.101—1.422)*1.216 (1.023—1.444)*1.298 (1.073—1.571)*
    闷热1.100 (1.020— 1.185)*1.081 (0.978—1.196)1.122 (1.004—1.254)*
     注:*代表 p<0.05。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  2010—2016年6—8月石家庄高温、热浪、闷热天气不同滞后天数对心脑血管疾病死亡人数影响的相对危险度及95%可信区间(95%CI)

    Table  4.   Relative risk and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for the effect of different lag days of high temperature,heatwave and sweltering weather on the number of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease deaths in Shijiazhuang from June to August,2010 to 2016

    滞后
    天数(d)
    RR(95%CI)
    总人数男性女性
    高温01.086 (1.013—1.164)*1.016 (0.924—1.117)1.177 (1.063—1.303)*
    11.116 (1.041—1.195)*1.102 (1.005—1.209)*1.132 (1.021—1.256)*
    21.035 (0.965—1.110)1.049 (0.956—1.152)1.016 (0.914—1.131)
    31.122 (1.048—1.201)*1.139 (1.040—1.247)*1.100 (0.992—1.220)*
    41.072 (1.001—1.148)*1.066 (0.972—1.169)1.080 (0.974—1.198)
    51.013 (0.945—1.086)0.993 (0.905—1.091)1.039 (0.937—1.153)
    热浪01.251 (1.101—1.422)*1.216 (1.023—1.444)*1.298 (1.073—1.571)*
    11.318 (1.164—1.493)*1.326 (1.124—1.564)*1.309 (1.083—1.581)*
    21.298 (1.150—1.466)*1.358 (1.159—1.592)*1.222 (1.012—1.475)*
    31.225 (1.085—1.382)*1.257 (1.072—1.474)*1.183 (0.983—1.424)
    41.062 (0.937—1.203)1.076 (0.912—1.270)1.044 (0.863—1.262)
    50.937 (0.824—1.065)0.924 (0.778—1.098)0.954 (0.787—1.157)
    闷热01.100 (1.020—1.185)*1.081 (0.977—1.196)1.122 (1.004—1.254)*
    11.046 (0.970—1.128)1.013 (0.914—1.122)1.088 (0.973—1.216)
    21.011 (0.937—1.092)1.021 (0.921—1.131)1.000 (0.891—1.122)
    30.983 (0.910—1.063)0.960 (0.864—1.066)1.013 (0.903—1.136)
    41.089 (1.010—1.174)*1.114 (1.007—1.231)*1.058 (0.944—1.186)
    51.013 (0.938—1.095)1.078 (0.974—1.194)0.935 (0.830—1.053)
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2021-12-02
  • 录用日期:  2022-04-21
  • 修回日期:  2022-03-22
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-04-12

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