不同气候变化情景下未来中国热相关死亡风险的预估

陆开来; 班婕; 王情; 陈晨; 许怀悦; 李湉湉

doi:10.11676/qxxb2022.037

不同气候变化情景下未来中国热相关死亡风险的预估

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.037

陆开来^{1, 2,},
班婕^{1, 3},
王情¹,
陈晨¹,
许怀悦¹,
李湉湉^1,

1.
中国疾病预防控制中心环境与人群健康重点实验室/中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所，北京，100021
2.
江苏海洋大学海洋技术与测绘学院，连云港，222005
3.
南京信息工程大学大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心/南京信息工程大学江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室/南京信息工程大学环境科学与工程学院，南京，210044

基金项目: 江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室开放基金项目（KHK2108）、国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持项目（92143202）

详细信息

作者简介:
陆开来，主要从事地理信息与环境健康研究。E-mail：rikuya1@outlook.com

通讯作者:
李湉湉，主要从事空气污染、气候变化与环境健康研究。E-mail：litiantian@ nieh.chinacdc.cn

中图分类号: P49 R122.2
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-01-18
- 修回日期: 2022-03-24
- 网络出版日期: 2022-04-12

Prediction of future heat-related death risk in China under different climate change scenarios

LU Kailai^{1, 2
,},
BAN Jie^{1, 3},
WANG Qing¹,
CHEN Chen¹,
XU Huaiyue¹,
LI Tiantian^1
,

1.
China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health，National Institute of Environmental Health，Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention，Beijing 100021，China
2.
School of Marine Technology and Geomatics，Jiangsu Ocean University，Lianyungang 222005，China
3.
Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology，Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control (AEMPC)，Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，Nanjing 210044，China

摘要

摘要: 预估气候变化背景下中国未来近期、中期及远期温度热相关人群超额死亡风险，为未来热相关人群健康风险防范提供科学依据。基于中国网格化日均气温数据集与3种排放情景下未来日均气温数据、历史人口数据与3种生育率情景下未来人口数据以及死因数据资料计算的热效应暴露-反应关系，计算每日热相关死亡人数。结果表明：（1）未来中国平均气温将持续升高，且北方地区升温幅度较大。（2）1986—2005年中国热相关非意外总死亡人数约为7.1（95%置信区间：5.7—8.5）万。（3）RCP2.6、RCP4.5情景下未来中国热相关非意外总死亡人数均呈现先升后降的变化趋势。在21世纪末不同情景下的热相关非意外总死亡人数均高于基准年代。（4）未来不同情景下中国热相关非意外总死亡人数在黄淮海地区以及成渝地区均呈上升趋势，在RCP2.6、RCP4.5情景下北方地区热相关非意外总死亡人数呈下降趋势，东南沿海地区在21世纪30年代后开始呈下降趋势。总体而言在全球变暖的背景下未来中国热相关死亡风险将上升，而在RCP2.6情景下可以有效抑制其上升趋势。
- 气候变化 /
- 热效应 /
- 超额死亡 /
- 预估
Abstract: This study predicts the heat-related excess deaths in the short-term, mid-term and long-term in China under climate change and provides a scientific basis for preventing the heat-related health risk in the future. Based on present-day gridded daily average temperature dataset in China, future daily average temperature datasets under 3 emission scenarios, historical population data, future population data under 3 fertility scenarios and cause of death data, the heat-related exposure-response relationship is simulated and the number of heat-related deaths per day is calculated. The results show that: (1) The average temperature in China will continue to rise in the future, and the increase in northern China will be larger. (2) The total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in China from 1986 to 2005 is approximately 71 (95%CI: 57—85) thousands. (3) The total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in China in the future under the scenarios of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 will increase first and then decrease. At the end of 21 century, the total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths under different scenarios is higher than in the baseline years. (4) The total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in China under different scenarios in the future will show an upward trend in the Huanghuaihai and Chengdu-Chongqing regions. Under the RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the total number of heat-related non-accidental deaths in northern China will show a downward trend. At the same time, the number in the southeastern coastal area will show a downward trend after the 2030s. Overall, in the context of climate warming, the heat-related risk in China will increase in the future, and it can be effectively suppressed under the RCP2.6 scenario.
- Climate change /
- Heat /
- Excess deaths /
- Prediction

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图 1 研究区、县分布

Figure 1. Geographic distribution of study counties

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 HadGEM2-ES、MPI-ESM-MR与NorESM1-M模拟误差订正前后日均气温的泰勒图

Figure 2. Taylor diagram of simulated daily average temperature before and after bias correction by HadGEM2-ES，MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M models

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 中国（a）基准年代（1986—2005年）均温和21世纪80—90年代（2081－2100年） RCP2.6情景（b）、RCP4.5情景（c）、RCP8.5情景（d）与基准年代温差的空间分布

Figure 3. （a） Average temperature in China during the baseline years （1986—2005） and temperature increases under （b） RCP2.6 scenario，（c） RCP4.5 scenario and （d） RCP8.5 scenarios in the 2090s compared to that in the baseline years

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 温度相关（a）北方总人群、（b）北方75岁以上人群、（c）北方75岁及以下人群、（d）南方总人群、（e）南方75岁以上人群、（f）南方75岁及以下人群的非意外总死亡风险的暴露-反应关系曲线

Figure 4. Exposure-response curves of temperature-related total non-accidental mortality risk for （a） group in northern China，（b） group over 75 years old in northern China，（c） group under 75 years old in northern China，（d） group in southern China，（e） group over 75 years old in southern China ，（f） group under 75 years old in southern China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 未来不同排放-人口情景下中国年均热相关非意外总死亡人数

Figure 5. Total annual heat-related non-accidental deaths in China under different emission-population scenarios in the future

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 SSP2-S2人口情景下未来不同排放情景（a. RCP2.6，b. RCP4.5，c. RCP8.5）及年代（1. 20—30年代，2. 50—60年代，3. 80—90年代）中国年均热相关非意外总死亡人数变化

Figure 6. Changes in annual average heat-related non-accidental total deaths under different future emission scenarios （a. RCP2.6，b. RCP4.5，c. RCP8.5） and time （1. 2030 s，2. 2060 s，3. 2090 s） and under the SSP2-S2 population scenario in China

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 研究期间人群死亡与环境因素暴露日均水平分布

Table 1. Summary statistics of environmental factors and daily number of non-accidental deaths

指标	范围（均值±标准差）	特征值
指标	范围（均值±标准差）	最小值	25%分位数	中位数	75%分位数	最大值
气温（℃）	22.94±5.76	−20.99	19.84	23.96	27.09	38.02
相对湿度（%）	73.72±14.29	6.89	66.29	76.59	83.97	99.92
非意外总死亡数（人/d）	9.61±6.87	0	5	8	13	134

下载: 导出CSV

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