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京津冀气象条件对学龄前儿童流感的影响及预报方法研究

李怡 陈仲榆 柳艳香 鲁亮

李怡,陈仲榆,柳艳香,鲁亮. 2022. 京津冀气象条件对学龄前儿童流感的影响及预报方法研究. 气象学报,80(3):375-384 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.042
引用本文: 李怡,陈仲榆,柳艳香,鲁亮. 2022. 京津冀气象条件对学龄前儿童流感的影响及预报方法研究. 气象学报,80(3):375-384 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.042
Li Yi, Chen Zhongyu, Liu Yanxiang, Lu Liang. 2022. The influence of meteorological conditions on influenza among preschool children over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and prediction methods. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(3):375-384 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.042
Citation: Li Yi, Chen Zhongyu, Liu Yanxiang, Lu Liang. 2022. The influence of meteorological conditions on influenza among preschool children over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and prediction methods. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 80(3):375-384 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.042

京津冀气象条件对学龄前儿童流感的影响及预报方法研究

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2022.042
基金项目: 国家科技基础资源调查专项(2017FY101206)、中国气象局公共气象服务中心创新基金项目(Y2020003)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    李怡,主要从事健康气象服务与气候变化研究。E-mail:liyipmsc@cma.gov.cn

    通讯作者:

    柳艳香,主要从事应用气象研究。E-mail:liuyx@cma.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号: P49

The influence of meteorological conditions on influenza among preschool children over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area and prediction methods

  • 摘要: 基于2014—2016年京津冀地区学龄前儿童流感发病人数和气象观测数据,研究了学龄前儿童流感发病与单个气象要素以及综合气象条件的关系,结果表明:该地区学龄前儿童流感发病人数与一周以内的气温、相对湿度、气压和综合气象条件指标—大气环境人体感知度(BPWI)存在显著线性相关。大气环境人体感知度与学龄前儿童流感具有更稳定的暴露-反应关系:当BPWI≤−11或0≤BPWI<10 时,随着BPWI减小,流感发病风险增大。气压是另一个显著影响流感发病的气象要素:当本站气压>905 hPa,随着气压的升高,流感发病人数增多;当本站气压达到1007 hPa时,流感发病风险达到峰值。在厘清暴露-反应关系的基础上,采用机器学习方法进行预报建模,发现超前3天的BPWI对流感发病人数贡献最大。通过历史回报检验,得到了较好的学龄前儿童流感发病回报效果,为流感的分类人群干预提供了预报依据和科学参考。

     

  • 图 1  京津冀流感发病年龄密度分布 (a. 2014年,b. 2015年,c. 2016年)

    Figure 1.  Kernel density estimates of age distribution of influenza occurrence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (a. 2014,b. 2015,c. 2016)

    图 2  京津冀2014—2016年学龄前儿童流感逐月发病人数与月平均气温时间序列

    Figure 2.  Monthly time series of preschool children influenza cases and monthly average temperature in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area from 2014 to 2016

    图 3  京津冀学龄前儿童流感各季节日平均发病率特征 (a. 春季,b. 夏季,c. 秋季,d. 冬季)

    Figure 3.  Average daily incidence of influenza in preschool children in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (a. spring,b. summer,c. autumn,d. winter)

    图 4  2014—2016年京津冀学龄前儿童流感发病人数与 (a) BPWI和 (b) 气压的关系 (实线表示流感相对危险度(RR),虚线表示95%置信区间)

    Figure 4.  Relationships of influenza cases with (a) BPWI and (b) station pressure among preschool children in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area during 2014—2016 (the solid line represents the logarithm of the relative risk of influenza,the dotted line represents the 95% confidence interval)

    图 5  XGBoost模型的特征重要性分析

    Figure 5.  Analysis of feature importance of the XGBoost model

    图 6  京津冀学龄前儿童流感预报模型回报拟合度 (横坐标为检验集实际发病人数,纵坐标为检验集回报发病人数,蓝实线为回报值与实际值的拟合线,阴影为95%置信区间)

    Figure 6.  Degree of fitting for prediction of preschool chil-dren influenza cases by prediction model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (the horizontal axis is the reported cases in test set,the vertical axis is the hindcast cases in test set,the solid blue line is the fitting line between the hindcast value and the reported value,the shade is the confidence interval of 95%)

    图 7  京津冀学龄前儿童流感历史回报效果检验

    Figure 7.  Validation of hindcast for preschool children influenza cases in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area

    表  1  2014—2016年逐日各气象要素间的相关系数

    Table  1.   Correlation coefficients between daily meteorological factors from 2014 to 2016

    气温相对湿度风速日照时数降水量气压BPWI
    气温1.000
    相对湿度0.280**1.000
    风速0.027−0.437**1.000
    日照时数0.265**−0.584**0.300**1.000
    降水量0.206**0.478**0.062*−0.430**1.000
    气压−0.614**−0.194**−0.175**−0.186**−0.218**1.000
    BPWI0.993**0.253**−0.0290.318**0.158**−0.596**1.000
    注: * 表示 P<0.05,** 表示P<0.001。
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  2014—2016年逐日各气象要素区域平均统计量

    Table  2.   Statistics of daily regional-mean of meteorological factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area from 2014 to 2016

    统计量BPWI气温(℃)相对湿度(%)风速(m/s)日照时数(h)降水量(mm)气压(hPa)
    平均值−2.9512.9558.381.976.321.18999.05
    标准差10.2410.7717.600.713.553.8123.24
    最小值−31.62−14.9516.430.600.000.00852.40
    25%分位数−12.852.2544.571.453.490.00992.03
    中位数−1.7314.6759.001.846.890.001003.98
    75%分位数6.3622.9672.332.339.130.221013.18
    最大值15.2631.4794.506.3013.3556.531034.98
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  2014—2016年京津冀学龄前儿童流感发病与气象要素 (发病当日及滞后) 相关系数

    Table  3.   Correlation coefficients between preschool children influenza cases and meteorological factors at the onset day and various lag days from 2014 to 2016

    气温相对湿度风速日照时数降水量气压BPWI
    发病当日 −0.762**−0.381** 0.037−0.136**−0.221**0.534**−0.751**
    发病前1天−0.763**−0.378** 0.029−0.150**−0.263**0.568**−0.754**
    发病前2天−0.767**−0.372** 0.009−0.144**−0.265**0.564**−0.755**
    发病前3天−0.768**−0.368** 0.012−0.141**−0.254**0.572**−0.758**
    发病前4天−0.769**−0.365** 0.010−0.143**−0.252**0.576**−0.759**
    发病前5天−0.770**−0.355** 0.001−0.143**−0.260**0.575**−0.759**
    发病前6天−0.781**−0.332**−0.010−0.172**−0.247**0.578**−0.771**
    注:** 表示P<0.001。
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2021-09-14
  • 录用日期:  2022-05-11
  • 修回日期:  2022-03-26
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-04-12

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