The relationship between body perception of weather indices and cerebral infarction disease：A case study in Wuchang, Heilongjiang province
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摘要: 大气环境人体感知度（Body Perception Weather Index，BPWI）是人体对大气环境中不同气象要素相互协同作用的感知程度。BPWI的变化会引起机体的生理应激反应，易引诱或加重脑梗塞疾病的发生。利用五常地区2015年10月30日至2018年12月31日逐日脑梗塞发病住院病例数和同期BPWI及其变化，分析研究了BPWI变化与脑梗塞发病风险的关系。全年中五常地区BPWI最大值10.1（7月），最小值−33.7（1月）；BPWI＜0时脑梗塞的发病风险较高，BPWI介于−30— −10时脑梗塞的发病人数占总发病人数的16.7%，其中BPWI＜−30时发病率最高可占18.8%，BPWI介于0—10的发病率12%—13%，BPWI＞10时，发病率最低；BPWI的变化幅度在0—−10时，脑梗塞的平均发病率大于20%，其中变化幅度0—−2.5时发病人数占比最高达27.6%，变化幅度超过±10时，发病率反而降低；连续2天BPWI的变化对脑梗塞的发病具有滞后效应，在−2.5—2.5时，脑梗塞的平均发病人数占比大于25%，连续3天BPWI的变化对脑梗塞的发病风险具有累积叠加效应，BPWI变化介于−10—10时，发病人数占比在13%—18%；室内外BPWI差异对脑梗塞的发病具有重要影响，室内外BPWI差异为−30—−20时，脑梗塞的发病人数占比最高可达41.3%，其次是介于−40—−30时达到21.6%，但BPWI＜−40或随着室内外BPWI差异的减小，脑梗塞的发病率逐渐降低。Abstract: Body Perception of Weather Index (BPWI) is the degree to which the human body perceives the synergistic effects of different weather elements in the atmospheric environment. Changes in BPWI can cause physiological stress in the body, which can induce or aggravate the occurrence of cerebral infarction (CI) disease. The effect of BPWI changes on the CI risk is studied using the relationship between daily CI inpatients and BPWI during the same period from 30 October 2015 to 31 December 2018 in Wuchang region. The results show that the maximum value of BPWI in Wuchang area is 10.1 (July) and the minimum value is −33.7 (January) in the whole year. The CI risk is higher when BPWI <0 and the number of CI inpatients accounts for 16.7% of the total cases when BPWI is between −30 and −10. The highest incidence accounts for 18.8% when BPWI <−30 and 12%—13% when BPWI is between 0 and 10, and the incidence is the lowest when BPWI >10. Compared with that during the same historical period, the average CI incidence is 20% greater when the change in BPWI ranges from 0 to −10, the highest incidence of 27.6% occurs when the change ranges from 0 to −2.5, and the incidence decreases when the change exceeds ±10. The change in BPWI on 2 consecutive days has a lagged effect on the CI onset, which shows an average percentage increase greater than 25% with BPWI changes between −2.5 to 2.5. The change in BPWI on 3 consecutive days has a cumulative superimposed effect on CI risk, which shows a percentage increase within the range of 13%—18% when BPWI change is between −10 and 10. The difference between indoor and outdoor BPWI has an important influence on the CI incidence, and the highest incidence is 41.3% when the difference is between −30 and −20, followed by 21.6% when it is between −40 and −30. However, the CI incidence gradually decreases when BPWI is <−40 or when the difference between indoor and outdoor BPWIs decreases.
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图 1 五常地区1981—2010年BPWI和气温日变化
Figure 1. Time series of daily BPWI and temperature during 1981—2010 in Wuchang area
图 2 2015—2018年逐日BPWI距平变化 （黑色粗曲线为15 d滑动平均）
Figure 2. Time series of daily BPWI anomaly during 2015—2018 （ thick black curve shows 15 d moving average）
图 6 连续2 d和连续3 d的BPWI距平与脑梗塞发病比较
Figure 6. Comparison of cerebral infarction morbidity with BPWI anomaly in 2 and 3 consecutive days
表 1 五常地区30 a（1981—2010年）平均人体感知度级别划分
Table 1. Classification of BPWI during 1981—2010 in Wuchang area
级别 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅵ Ⅶ Ⅷ BPWI ≥10 5—10 0—5 0— −5 −5— −10 −10— −20 −20— −30 <−30 大气环境 热 暖 温 凉 冷 较冷 寒冷 严寒 全年占比（%） 0.3 23.0 11.2 10.9 9.8 14.7 18.0 12.1 
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表 2 2016—2018年BPWI距平出现频率
Table 2. Occurrence frequencies of BPWI anomaly at 8 intervals from 2016 to 2018
级别 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ Ⅴ Ⅵ Ⅶ Ⅷ BPWI 距平 15—10 10—5 5—2.5 2.5—0 0— −2.5 −2.5— −5 −5— −10 −10— −15 占全年的
比例（%）2016 0.6 2.8 6.9 15.6 29.7 19.4 23.3 1.7 2017 0 7.1 7.9 17 23.8 23 18.4 2.7 2018 0.5 6.6 9.3 17 21.1 21.1 21.9 2.5 平 均（%） 0.4 30.0 67.3 2.3
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表 3 室内外BPWI差值与脑梗塞发病人数
Table 3. Differences between indoor and outdoor BPWI and cerebral infarction morbidity
BPWI室外与室内差值 <−40 [−40，−30） [−30， −20） [−20， −10） [−10， −5） [−5， −2.5） [−2.5，0） [0，2.5） [2.5，5） ≥5 发病人数占比（%） 2.9 21.6 41.3 16.7 10.5 3.0 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.4 室外BPWI −37.0 −29.3 −20.9 −10.7 −2.8 0.6 2.8 5.5 7.9 11.2
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