Review of advances in hail formation process and hail suppression research
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摘要: 冰雹作为一种短时强灾害天气，常给农业、建筑、电力、交通甚至生命财产等造成严重影响，人工防雹也因此受到人们的广泛关注。文中首先介绍了冰雹形成机理和雹云物理研究情况，然后围绕人工防雹机理、技术、科学试验及效果评估这4个方面的研究进行了评述，旨在从理论和实践上总结人工防雹工作的进展，增进对人工防雹科学问题的认知，从而为促进中国人工防雹理论研究和技术进步提供借鉴。研究表明：（1）“累积带理论”和“循环增长理论”是冰雹形成的最常见理论，限于早期的雷达观测技术和缺乏完整的冰雹数值模式，早期认知的冰雹形成机理存在一定的局限。（2）雹胚一般分为冻滴胚和霰胚，冻滴胚由过冷雨滴冻结而成，霰胚则是冰晶、雪花撞冻生长而成。冰雹云中哪种雹胚占优势，主要看云底温度的高低。雹云的发展依赖于水汽条件、动力不稳定条件、风垂直切变等关键因子。（3）人工防雹主要遵循“播撒防雹”和“爆炸防雹”2条技术路线，“利益竞争”和“早期降雨”是常见的6种防雹原理假说中最广泛被用来作为防雹作业设计依据的2种播撒防雹理论。（4）人工防雹技术上多采用通过飞机、地面火箭、地面燃烧炉等向云中播撒人工冰核，或通过地面高炮向云中发射含人工冰核的炮弹等方式，影响冰雹的生长过程从而达到抑制或削弱冰雹生长的目的。（5）大量外场试验证明人工防雹效果有较大的地域差异，需根据各地冰雹云特征及其降雹特点制定和发展本地适用的人工防雹技术体系。（6）人工防雹效果检验仍然是制约人工防雹技术发展的一个“瓶颈”，目前常用的统计检验、物理检验和数值模拟检验技术方法均需要进一步改进和完善。由于雹云变化迅速、降雹过程短促，人工防雹技术实施的时效性以及防雹效果评估仍存在较大的困难。今后应更多地借助多种探测设备进行冰雹云的精细化探测，开展有科学设计的人工防雹外场综合试验，运用统计检验、物理检验和数值模拟相结合的综合检验技术方法评估防雹效果，推动人工防雹事业进一步快速发展。Abstract: As a kind of short-period severe weather disaster, hails often have severe impacts on agriculture, construction, electricity, transportation and even lives and properties, etc. Therefore, hail suppression is widely concerned worldwide. This paper provides a detailed review of research progress in hail formation mechanism and hail cloud physics from perspectives of mechanism, technology, scientific experiments and effect evaluation of hail suppression for the purpose to gain in-depth knowledge of domestic and international development of hail suppression in both theoretical and practical fields, improve our understanding of scientific problems in hail suppression, and provide references for promoting theoretical research and technological progress of hail suppression in China. Major results as follows: (1) The "theory of zone of accumulation" and the "theory of cyclic growth" are the most common theories of hail formation. Limited by the early radar observation technology and the lack of complete numerical models for hail simulation, the early knowledge of the hail formation mechanism has certain limitations. (2) Hail embryos are generally divided into frozen drop embryos and graupel embryos. Frozen drop embryos are formed by the freezing of supercooled raindrops while graupel embryos are formed by the growth of collision and freezing of ice crystals and snowflakes. What type of hail embryo is dominant in the hail cloud mainly depends on temperature of the cloud base. The development of hail clouds depends on key factors such as water vapor condition, dynamic instability condition, and vertical wind shear, etc. (3) The mechanism of hail suppression mainly follows two technical lines, "hail suppression by seeding" and "hail suppression by explosion". "Competing interests" and "early rainfall" are the two most widely used theories of seeding among the six common hypotheses of hail suppression on which hail suppression operations are designed. (4) Technically, the hail suppression operations mainly include seeding hail clouds with artificial ice nuclei by aircraft, rocket launcher, ground generator, etc., or launching shells with artificial ice nuclei by ground artillery, which can affect the growing process of hail to suppress or weaken the growth of hail. (5) A large number of field experiments of hail suppression have proved that there are regional differences in operation effect of hail suppression. It is necessary to formulate and develop regional hail suppression technology systems adapted to local conditions according to the characteristics of hail clouds and hailstorms in different regions. (6) Evaluating the effect of hail suppression is still a bottleneck problem that limits the development of hail suppression technology. The methods commonly used to assess the effect of hail suppression mainly include statistical, physical, and numerical simulation evaluations, which need further improvement. Due to the rapid changes in hail clouds and short hailstorm processes, there exits great difficulties in the timeliness of implementation of hail suppression operation and the effect evaluation of hail suppression. It will start from carrying out fine detection of hail clouds based on a variety of observation equipment and comprehensive field experiments of hail suppression with scientific design. Statistical, physical and numerical simulation approaches should be combined to evaluate the effect of hail suppression and promote further development of hail suppression technology in future.
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图 1 1959年7月9日上午英国沃金厄姆地区一次风暴三维气流模型 （Browning，et al，1962）
Figure 1. Three-dimensional model of the airflow within the Wokingham storm on the morning of 9 July 1959 （Browning，et al，1962）
图 2 超级单体风暴的平面示意 （Marwitz，1972）
Figure 2. Schematic diagram of a supercell storm in plan view （Marwitz，1972）
图 6 格鲁吉亚卡赫季地区布置的火箭自动发射装置 （Amiranashvili，et al，2015）
Figure 6. The automatic rocket launcher deployed in the Kakheti area of Georgia （Amiranashvili，et al，2015）
图 7 格鲁吉亚卡赫季地区使用的SK-6防雹火箭 （Amiranashvili，et al，2015）
Figure 7. The anti-hail rocket SK-6 used in the Kakheti area of Georgia （Amiranashvili，et al，2015）
图 8 亚美尼亚采用自动防雹网络系统工作示意 （Arakelyan，2017）
Figure 8. Schematic diagram of automatic hail suppression network system used in Armenia （Arakelyan，2017）
图 9 塞尔维亚防雹试验发射点高度的频率分布 （高度单位：100 m）（Vukovic，et al，1990）
Figure 9. The frequency distribution of firing point elevations （elevation in 100 m） of the hail suppression test in Serbia （Vukovic，et al，1990）
图 10 法国防雹外场试验项目 （ANELFA） 2015年地面燃烧炉分布 （Dessens，et al，2016）
Figure 10. Map of the ANELFA ground generator networks in 2015 （Dessens，et al，2016）
图 11 美国NHRE试验区地理分布 （Foote，et al，1979）
Figure 11. Map of the NHRE experimental area in the United States （Foote，et al，1979）
图 13 河北满城县防雹作业炮位示意 （王雨曾等，1995）
Figure 13. Map of artillery positions for hail suppression operation in Mancheng county，Hebei province （Wang，et al，1995）
图 14 南斯拉夫东部催化站点1949—1988年平均雹日变化 （Mesinger，et al，1992）
Figure 14. Variation trend of average hail days from 1949 to 1988 at the catalytic site in eastern Yugoslavia （Mesinger，et al，1992）
图 15 新疆防雹作业区与对比区示意 （Ⅰ为对比区：喀什地区；Ⅱ为目标区：阿克苏地区） （李斌等，2017）
Figure 15. Schematic diagram of Xinjiang hail suppression operation area and comparison area，Ⅰ is the comparison area：Kashgar area；Ⅱ is the target area：Aksu area （Li，et al，2017）
图 16 2008年5月山东两块对流云回波高度 （a） 和垂直积分液态含水量 （b） 随时间的演变情况 （王庆等，2018）
Figure 16. Temporal evolution of the echo height （a） and VIL （b） of two convective clouds in Shandong in May，2008 （Wang，et al，2018）
图 17 2018年6月12日山东西北部两个单体的雷达回波强度 （a）、垂直积分液态含水量 （b）、冰雹和强冰雹概率 （c） 以及回波顶高 （d） 变化 （图中斜线阴影柱体表示作业时段；Y4：防雹作业，U4：自然雹云） （刘昭武等，2020）
Figure 17. Radar echo intensity （a），VIL （b），probability of hail and strong hail （c） and the change of echo top height （d） of two monomers in the northwestern area of Shandong on 12 June 2018 （oblique shaded column in the figure indicates the operation time；Y4：hail suppression cloud，U4：natural cloud） （Liu，et al，2020）
图 18 2015年7月21日加拿大阿尔伯塔防雹项目中雷达观测的24 h最大垂直累积液态水含量 （a） 和体扫对流单体雷达最大回波强度在播撒前、播撒中和播撒后的变化 （b） （对流单体分别为cell 1、cell 2和cell 5） （Gilbert，et al，2016）
Figure 18. 24 h maximum vertical cumulative liquid water content observed by radar （a） and variation of the maximum echo intensity of the in the Canadian Alberta Hail Prevention Project on 21 July 2015 （including three convective monomer belts，cell 1，cell 2 and cell 5 respectively） （Gilbert，et al，2016）
图 19 北京平谷区一次防雹作业前、后作业云区 （红色方框） 和对比云区 （白色方框） 双偏振雷达相态变化 （陈羿辰等，2016）
Figure 19. Phase changes of the operation cloud area （red square） and the contrast cloud area （white square） by dual-polarization radar before and after a hail suppression operation in Pinggu district，Beijing （Chen，et al，2016）
图 20 1998年7月21日河南北部地区一次降雹过程模拟自然云 （实线） 与8 min、4 km作业云 （虚线） 的过冷雨 （a、b）、雹胚 （c、d）、冰雹 （e、f） 中心值 （b、d、f） 及高度 （a、c、e） 的比较 （周毓荃等，2003）
Figure 20. Comparison of super cold rain （a，b）， hail embryo （c，d）， hail （e，f） center value （b，d，f） and height （a，c，e） in the simulated natural cloud （solid line） and 8 min， 4 km operation cloud （dotted line） during a hail process in the northern part of Henan on 21 July 1998 （Zhou，et al，2003）
图 21 1999年7月18日陕西旬邑地区的冰雹云模拟 （a. BR-91-Y型AgI焰剂与另外两种复合核成核率的比较结果，b. 火箭以不同仰角发射对应的弹道曲线） （李宏宇等，2003）
Figure 21. Hail cloud simulation in Xunyi area of Shaanxi province on 18 July 1999 （a. comparison of nucleation rate among BR-91-Y AgI flame and the other two composite nuclei，b. results of the corresponding ballistic curve of the rocket launched at different elevation angles） （Li，et al，2003）
图 22 北京一次降雹过程不同剂量 （单位：kg−1） 催化剂的 （a） 降雹量、（b） 降雨量和不同云的 （c） 降雹量和降雨量、（d） 冰雹和霰总质量随时间分布的模拟结果 （楼小凤等，2016）
Figure 22. Simulation results of total hail （a） and rainfall （b） at the amount of 5×107、1×107、5×106、1×106、5×105、1×105 and 5×104 kg−1 of catalyst， simulation results of total hail and rainfall （c） and total mass of hail and graupel （d） in natural clouds and catalytic clouds over time during a hail process in Beijing （Lou，et al，2016）
表 1 陕西旬邑县雹云雷达识别指标 （肖辉等，2002）
Table 1. Radar identification indexes of hail clouds in Xunyi county，Shaanxi province （Xiao，et al，2002）
类别 指 标 45 dBz回波顶高（km） 45 dBz回波顶温度（℃） 强冰雹云 ≥8.0 ≤−20 弱冰雹云 7.0—8.0 −14— −20 雷雨云 <7.0 >−14 
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表 2 甘肃平凉市冰雹回波特征量平均值 （王若升等，2013）
Table 2. Average values of hail echo characteristics in Pingliang city，Gansu province （Wang，et al，2013）
天气 最大回
波强度
（dBz）回波
顶高
（km）强中心
高度
（km）最大液态
含水量
（kg/m3）45 dBz
回波顶高
（km）雷阵雨伴冰雹 59.3 11.9 6.2 38.1 8.0 雷阵雨伴强降水 52.5 9.4 3.2 25.1 3.0 雷阵雨 45.1 6.7 3.6 4.9 4.5
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表 3 国际上人工防雹效果统计 （王雨曾，1987）
Table 3. Statistics on the effect of artificial hail suppression in foreign countries （Wang，1987）
国名 作业时段 防雹保护面积（km2） 防雹效果 作业原理与方法 苏联 1968—1984年 88870 平均80% 过量催化 美国（NHRE） 1972—1974年 18750 7% 播撒 美国（堪萨斯州） 1975—1979年 15600 39% 云顶播撒 美国（得克萨斯州） 1970—1976年 3200 43% 云底播撒 法国 1965—1981年 70000 40%—45% 提前催化 意大利 1970—1979年 11000 35%—57% 提前催化 西班牙 1972—1983年 5000 20%—26% 播撒 联邦徳国 1980—1984年 12700 50% 云底播撒 保加利亚 1972—1984年 14400 55%—60% 过量催化 匈牙利 1976—1984年 1500 50%—55% 过量催化 瑞士 1977—1981年 1000 不明显 火箭播撒 南非 4.5 a（时段不详） − 23%—40% 云顶播撒 阿根廷 1959—1964年 4000 − − 肯尼亚 1963—1967年 − 损失显著减少 爆炸
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