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河南“21.7”极端暴雨过程天气尺度系统发展维持机制分析

齐道日娜 王秀明 俞小鼎 张军辉

齐道日娜,王秀明,俞小鼎,张军辉. 2023. 河南“21.7”极端暴雨过程天气尺度系统发展维持机制分析. 气象学报,81(1):1-18 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220014
引用本文: 齐道日娜,王秀明,俞小鼎,张军辉. 2023. 河南“21.7”极端暴雨过程天气尺度系统发展维持机制分析. 气象学报,81(1):1-18 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220014
Chyi Dorina, Wang Xiuming, Yu Xiaoding, Zhang Junhui. 2023. Analysis on the development and maintenance mechanism of the extreme heavy rainfall in Henan on July 2021. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 81(1):1-18 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220014
Citation: Chyi Dorina, Wang Xiuming, Yu Xiaoding, Zhang Junhui. 2023. Analysis on the development and maintenance mechanism of the extreme heavy rainfall in Henan on July 2021. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 81(1):1-18 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220014

河南“21.7”极端暴雨过程天气尺度系统发展维持机制分析

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220014
基金项目: 中国气象局短时临近预报教学科研团队项目、国家自然科学基金项目(42275013)、中国气象局气象干部培训学院青年科研项目(2022CMATCQN03)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J029)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    齐道日娜,主要从事灾害性天气机理研究。E-mail:chyi@cma.gov.cn

    通讯作者:

    王秀明,主要从事灾害性强对流天气观测与数值模拟研究。E-mail: wangxm@cma.gov.cn

  • 中图分类号:  

Analysis on the development and maintenance mechanism of the extreme heavy rainfall in Henan on July 2021

  • 摘要: 利用实况资料和ERA5再分析资料对“21.7”河南极端暴雨过程的锋生作用、大气非绝热加热和水汽净收支进行了深入分析,揭示此次过程天气尺度系统发展维持机制。结果表明:本次极端暴雨过程中,河南位于西北太平洋副热带高压(副高)和大陆高压之间的鞍型场中,低层辐合高层辐散的配置有利于500 hPa低压系统的发展和维持;锋生作用主要发生在对流层低层且与$ {\theta }_{se} $密集区有较好的对应关系,水平散度项和水平变形项起主导作用,两者的贡献基本相当;视热源<Q1>和视水汽汇<Q2>水平分布与强降雨落区较为吻合,二者的垂直分布有明显差异,Q1最强加热作用在对流层中高层,而Q2垂直分布较为均匀但强度明显小于Q1Q1中位温垂直输送项起主导作用,而Q2中比湿水平平流项发挥着主导作用,这表明本次河南极端暴雨中,区域性强凝结潜热的释放对降水有正反馈作用。伴随来自台风烟花(2106)北侧偏东气流的不断加强西进,强风速切变及地形抬升引发异常强盛的边界层水汽辐合,总水汽收支主要受到东西向水汽净流入的主导,偏东路径边界层极强的水汽输送对极端暴雨过程的维持和加强起到十分关键的作用。

     

  • 图 1  2021年7月19—22日日累计降水量 (08时至次日08时)(a. 日累计降水量突破历史极值的站点分布和所在区域的地形高度 (色阶,单位:m),b. 20日08时—21日08时累计降水量 (单位:mm),c. 21日08时—22日08时累计降水量 (单位:mm);黑色圆点为郑州气象站的位置,黑色方框为暴雨区 (33.5°—36°N,112.5°—115°E))

    Figure 1.  Monitoring of daily accumulative heavy rainfall (08:00 BT to 08:00 BT the next day) from 20 Jul to 22 Jul 2021 (a. distribution of stations with record-breaking daily accumulative rainfall and topographic height of the area (shadings,unit:m),b. daily accumulative rainfall from 08:00 BT 20 July to 08:00 BT 21 July 2021 (unit:mm),c. accumulative rainfall from 08:00 BT 21 July to 08:00 BT 22 July 2021 (unit:mm). In (b)—(c),the black dot shows the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station and the black box indicates the area of heavy rainfall (33.5°—36°N,112.5°—115°E))

    图 2  2021年7月20日08时天气形势 (a. 200 hPa高度场 (等值线,单位:dagpm) 和风场 (风羽),b. 500 hPa高度场 (黑色等值线,单位:dagpm)、风场 (风羽) 和温度场 (红色等值线,单位:℃),c. 850 hPa风场 (风羽) 和比湿 (绿色等值线,单位:g/kg),黑色圆点为郑州站的位置)

    Figure 2.  Synoptic weather pattern at 08:00 BT 20 July 2021 (a. geopotential height (contours,unit:dagpm) and wind (barbs) at 200 hPa,b. geopotential height (contours,unit:dagpm),temperature (red solid lines,unit:℃) and wind (barbs) at 500 hPa,c. specific humidity (green solid lines,unit:g/kg) and wind (barbs) at 850 hPa. Black dot shows the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station)

    图 3  2021年7月20—21日 925 hPa锋生函数 (色阶,单位:10−9 K/(m·s))和假相当位温(等值线,单位:K)分布 (a. 20日08时,b. 20日20时,c. 21日08时,d. 21日20时;黑色圆点为郑州气象站的位置)

    Figure 3.  Frontogenesis function (shadings,unit:10−9 K/(m·s)) and $ {\theta }_{se} $ (contours,unit:K) at 925 hPa from 20 July to 21 July in 2021 (a. 08:00 BT 20 July,b. 20:00 BT 20 July,c. 08:00 BT 21 July,d. 20:00 BT 21 July;black dot is the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station)

    图 4  2021年7月20—21日沿郑州站所在经度的锋生函数 (填色,单位:10−9 K/(m·s)) 和假相当位温 (等值线,单位:K) 剖面 (a. 20日08时,b. 20日20时,c. 21日08时,d. 21日20时)

    Figure 4.  Cross sections of frontogenesis function (shadings,unit:10−9 K/(m·s)) and $ {\theta }_{se} $ (contours,unit:K) along Zhengzhou meteorological station from 20 Jul to 21 Jul in 2021 (a. 08:00 BT 20 July,b. 20:00 BT 20 July,c. 08:00 BT 21 July,d. 20:00 BT 21 July)

    图 5  2021年7月20—21日925 hPa锋生函数水平散度项 (色阶,单位:10−9 K/(m·s))、风场 (风羽) 和散度 (等值线,单位:10−5 s−1) 分布 (a. 20日08时,b. 20日20时,c. 21日08时,d. 21日20时;黑色圆点为郑州气象站的位置)

    Figure 5.  Horizontal convergence term of frontogenesis function (shadings,unit:10−9 K/(m·s)),wind (barbs) and divergence (contours,unit:10−5 s−1) at 925 hPa from 20 July to 21 July 2021. (a. 08:00 BT 20 July,b. 20:00 BT 20 July,c. 08:00 BT 21 July,d. 20:00 BT 21 July;black dot is the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station)

    图 6  2021年7月20—21日925 hPa锋生函数水平变形项 (色阶,单位:10 −9 K/(m·s)) 和切变变形项 (等值线,单位:10 −9 K/(m·s)) 分布 (a. 20日08时,b. 20日20时,c. 21日08时,d. 21日20时;黑色圆点为郑州气象站位置)

    Figure 6.  Horizontal deformation term of frontogenesis function (shadings,unit:10−9 K/(m·s)) and shear deformation term (contours,unit:10 −9 K/(m·s)) at 925 hPa from 20 July to 21 July 2021 (a. 08:00 BT 20 July,b. 20:00 BT 20 July,c. 08:00 BT 21 July,d.20:00 BT 21 July;black dot is the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station)

    图 7  2021年7月 (a) 20日和 (b) 21日的暴雨区域(33.5°—36.5°N,112.5°—115°E) 平均Q1 (单位:K/h)、Q2 (单位:K/h) 和垂直速度 (单位:Pa/s) 日平均垂直廓线

    Figure 7.  Vertical profiles of Q1 (unit:K/h),Q2 (unit:K/h) and vertical velocity (unit:Pa/s) averaged over the heavy rainfall region (33.5°—36.5°N,112.5°—115°E) on (a) 20 July and (b) 21 July in 2021

    图 8  2021年7月 (a) 20日和 (b) 21日<Q1>(单位:W/m2) 日平均分布,(c、d) 同 (a、b),但为<Q2> (单位:W/m2)(黑色圆点为郑州气象站的位置)

    Figure 8.  <Q1> (unit:W/m2) on (a) 20 July and (b) 21 July 2021. (c,d) are same as (a,b) but for <Q2>(Black dot is the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station)

    图 9  2021年7月(a)20日和(b)21日的暴雨区域(33.5°—36.5°N,112.5°—115°E)区域平均Q1各分量 (单位:K/h) 垂直廓线,(c、d) 同 (a、b),但为Q2各分量 (单位:K/h) 日平均垂直廓线

    Figure 9.  Component vertical profiles of area-averaged Q1 (unit:K/h) in heavy rainfall region (33.5°—36.5°N,112.5°—115°E) on (a) 20 Jul and (b) 21 Jul 2021, (c,d) are same as (a,b) but for Q2 (unit:K/h)

    图 10  2021年7月 (a) 20日08—20时平均和 (b) 21日08—20时平均大尺度潜热加热率 (Hs,单位:K/h) 分布图,(c、d) 同 (a、b),但为对流潜热加热率 (Hc,单位:K/h),黑色圆圈为郑州站的位置

    Figure 10.  Distributions of large scale condensational latent heating rate (Hs,unit:K/h) and convective condensational latent heating rate (Hc). (a) Hs corresponds to averaged rainfall from 08:00 BT to 20:00 BT 20 July,(b) Hs corresponds to averaged rainfall from 08:00 BT to 20:00 BT 21 July 2021. (c,d) are same as (a,b) but for Hc (Black circle is the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station)

    图 11  2021年7月20—21日1000—700 hPa垂直积分水汽通量 (箭头,单位:kg/(m·s))及水汽通量散度 (填色,单位:10−5kg /(m2·s)) 分布 (a. 20日08时,b. 20日20时,c. 21日08时,d. 21日20时;黑色圆点为郑州气象站的位置,黑色方框为暴雨过程水汽辐合区域(33°—38°N,112°—116°E))

    Figure 11.  Water vapor flux (arrows,unit:kg/(m·s)) vertically integrated from 1000 hPa to 700 hPa and corresponding divergence field (shadings,unit: 10−5kg /(m2·s)) from 1000 hPa to 700 hPa from 20 July to 21 July 2021 (a. 08:00 BT 20 July,b. 20:00 BT 20 July,c. 08:00 BT 21 July,d. 08:00 BT 21 July;black dot is the position of Zhengzhou meteorological station,the black box indicates the domain of water vapor flux convergence area (33°—38°N,112°—116°E))

    图 12  2021年7月20—21日水汽辐合区域平均 (32°—38°N,111°—116°E) 水汽通量东西两侧 (实线)、南北两侧 (虚线) 和总水汽收支 (点线) 的垂直廓线 (单位:107 kg/s)(a. 20日08时,b. 20日20日,c. 21日08时, d. 21日20时)

    Figure 12.  Vertical profiles of east-west sides of water vapor budget,north-south sides of water vapor budget and total water vapor budget area-averaged over the water vapor fluxes convergence region (32°—38°N,111°—116°E) from 20 July to 21 July in 2021 (unit:107 kg/s)(a. 08:00 BT 20 July,b. 20:00 BT 20 July, c. 08:00 BT 21 July, d. 20:00 BT 21 July)

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  • 收稿日期:  2022-01-26
  • 录用日期:  2022-12-28
  • 修回日期:  2022-08-07
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-08-08

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