Evolution of environmental circulation and dynamic and thermodynamic conditions before and after the onset of typhoon rapid intensification
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摘要: 使用1949—2020年中国气象局上海台风研究所热带气旋最佳路径资料和1991—2020年欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim再分析资料，利用200和850 hPa风场分量（u、v）联合经验正交函数（EOF）分解，归纳了台风快速增强（简称RI）爆发前后的环流特征以及环境动力和热力条件的演变。结果表明，台风快速增强爆发时的EOF分解主分量低层为季风汇合型，有利于台风低层水汽输送，高层环流有明显的出流通道，可作为台风快速增强预报的典型环流形势；海表温度、水汽和对流不稳定等热力条件，以及环境风垂直切变和表征台风高层出流的高空辐散等动力条件一般能达到台风增强所需要素的适值范围。台风从一般增强到快速增强转变过程中，有利于台风增强的各环境因子并没有显著变化或突变，且有极端个例的环境因子向不利于台风增强趋势变化。该研究为今后台风快速增强预报和进一步研究提供了参考。Abstract: Using the tropical cyclone best track data from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for the period 1949—2020 and the reanalysis interim data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim) for the period 1991—2020, the EOF combination analysis of u and v components of the wind field on the 200 and 850 hPa is conducted to summarize characteristics of larger-scale environmental circulation at the onset of typhoon rapid intensification and the evolutions of environmental dynamic and thermal conditions before and after the onset are further analyzed. The results indicate that in lower levels, the main environmental circulation of EOF decomposition is the confluence pattern of monsoon trough at the onset of typhoon irapid ntensification, and the circulation is conducive to low-level water vapor transport. The upper-level circulation shows obvious typhoon outflow channels, and this characteristic can be used as a typical circulation pattern for the rapid intensification forecast. The thermal condition (such as sea surface temperature, water vapor and convective instability) and the dynamic condition (such as environmental vertical wind shear and the strength of upper-level outflow) can generally reach the fitness range of conditions that are favorable for typhoon intensification. However, the values of the above environmental factors have not changed significantly or suddenly during the transition from slow intensification process to rapid intensification process. Some extreme cases even show that some of environmental factors change towards unfavorable conditions for typhoon intensification. These research results provide a reference for the prediction of typhoon rapid intensification and further typhoon studies in the future. As for the unfavorable conditions shown in some RI cases, further studied are necessary to determine whether there are other favorable factors that offset the negative effects of these conditions and what are the corresponding physical processes.
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Key words:
- Typhoon /
- Rapid intensification /
- Environmental circulation /
- Intensification condition /
- Sudden change
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图 1 1949—2020年台风生成 （黑色等值线）和快速增强爆发 （红色等值线）位置空间概率密度分布 （单位：个/（πr2），ｒ=250 km）
Figure 1. Probability density （unit：incidents/（πr2），ｒ= 250 km） distribution of typhoon formation locations （black contours） and locations of typhoon rapid intensification onset （red contours） from 1949 to 2020
图 2 台风生成数 （黑色）、快速增强台风数 （蓝色）和快速增强发生次数 （红色） 的年际变化 （长圆线为1949—2020年平均，短×线为1991—2020年平均）
Figure 2. Interannual variations of the numbers of typhoon formation （black） and the number of rapid intensification typhoon （blue） and the number of RI （red），the lines with circle present average from 1949 to 2020，the lines with cross present average from 1991 to 2020
图 3 台风生成数 （黑色）、快速增强台风个数 （蓝色）和台风快速增强次数 （红色） 的月际变化 （实线为1949—2020年多年平均，虚线为1991—2020年常年平均）
Figure 3. Monthly variation of typhoon formation number （black），the number of RI typhoon （blue）， RI number （red），average number from 1949 to 2020 （solid line） and average number from 1991 to 2020 （dashed line）
图 4 台风快速增强爆发时背景环流第一特征向量的空间模态850 hPa流场 （a） 和200 hPa流场 （b） 以及第一特征向量对应的时间系数 （c） （图a、b中的“+”为台风中心位置，纵（横）坐标为相对台风中心纬（经）度距离，图b中等值线为第一模态200 hPa流场对应散度场）
Figure 4. Spatial patterns of the first eigenvector of the streamline field near the typhoon center at 850 hPa （a） and 200 hPa （b） at the onset of typhoon RI，and the variation of the time coefficient of the first eigenvector （c） （in Fig. a and b，"+"denotes the typhoon center location，x-direction coordinates and y-direction coordinates are the longitudinal distance and latitudinal distance from the typhoon center，the lines in Fig. b are contours of divergence at 200 hPa）
图 5 台风快速增强爆发时及前后EOF分解第一特征向量系数变化 （x表示−12 h的时间系数，其他时次的系数相对于x增加）
Figure 5. Time coefficient changes for the first eigenvector of EOF analysis before and after the onset of typhoon RI （x represents the time coefficient of −12 h，and the coefficients of other times are changes relative to x）
图 6 台风快速增强爆发前后第一特征向量 850 （a） 和 200 （b） hPa 之间差值流场 （12 h减−12 h） （“+”为台风中心位置）
Figure 6. Differences in streamline of the first EOF eigenvector between before and after the onset of typhoon RI （12 h minus −12 h） at 850 （a） and 200 （b） hPa （"+" denotes the typhoon center location）
图 7 1992年6月24日18时 （a. 9203号台风“波比”路径） 和1991年10月06日12时 （b. 9122号台风“帕特”路径） 西北太平洋海表温度分布 （其中绿色线段为台风快速增强爆发前12 h到后12 h移动路径）及所有样本快速增强前后过程中海表温度的变化 （c）
Figure 7. Distributions of sea surface temperature over the western North Pacific at 18:00 UTC 24 June 1992 （a. typhoon tracks are for 9203 Bobbie） and 12:00 UTC 6 October 1991 （b. typhoon tracks are for 9122 Pat） （the green segment is the track for RI process from 12 h to 12 h），and box plot of temporal evolution of sea surface temperature before and after the RI onset for all samples （c）
图 8 （a） 2019年11月14日00时和 （b） 15日00时西北太平洋可降水量及 （c） 14日00时和 （d） 15日00时西北太平洋 600 hPa 相对湿度 （台风路径为1925号台风“风神”，红色段为快速增强爆发前12 h到后12 h，台风符号为该时刻台风中心位置）
Figure 8. Distributions of precipitable water over the western North Pacific at 00:00 UTC 14 （a） and 00:00 UTC 15 （b），and distributions of relative humidity at 600 hPa at 00:00 UTC 14 （c） and 00:00 UTC 15 （d） November 2019 （the track is for typhoon Fengshen and the red segment is the track over the 24 h period from −12 h to 12 h，the red typhoon symbol represents the location of the typhoon center）
图 9 台风快速增强过程中台风中心附近可降水量 （a） 和600 hPa相对湿度 （b） 及快速增强爆发前12 h台风未来移动方向上可降水量 （c） 和600 hPa相对湿度 （d）
Figure 9. Box plots of temporal evolutions of regional mean precipitable water （a） and relative humidity at 600 hPa （b） near the typhoon center before and after the RI onset for all samples，box plots of temporal evolution of regional mean precipitation water （c） and relative humidity at 600 hPa （d） along typhoon center moving direction for all samples
图 10 台风移动过程中台风中心附近 （a） 和台风快速增强爆发前12 h开始台风未来移动方向上 （b） 对流有效位能变化
Figure 10. Box plots of temporal evolution of regional mean CAPE （a） near the typhoon center before and after RI onset for all samples， box plots of temporal evolution of regional mean CAPE （b） near the typhoon center along the moving direction at 12 h for all samples
图 11 第一特征向量EOF1的环境风垂直分布 （a） 和200与850 hPa风场矢量 “切变环流”分布 （b），以及台风快速增强爆发前后整层 （c）、中上层 （d） 和中下层 （e） 环境风垂直切变
Figure 11. Vertical distribution of environmental wind （a） and spatial streamline pattern distribution of vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa （b） for the first eigenvector （EOF1）；box plots of temporal evolution of environmental vertical wind shear in the deep layer （c），the mid-high layer （d） and the mid-low layer （e） before and after the RI onset for all samples
图 12 （a） EOF第一特征向量时间系数最大的个例200 hPa 流场和散度 （色阶，单位：10−6 s−1） 及 （b） 台风快速增强爆发前后台风中心周围1000 km范围内平均200 hPa散度变化
Figure 12. （a） Distribution of streamline and divergence （shadings） of the typhoon case with the maximum EOF1 coefficient，（b） box plot of temporal evolution of regional mean divergence at 200 hPa within 1000 km of the typhoon center （unit：10−6 s−1） before and after RI onset for all samples
表 1 1949—2020年不同峰值强度级别的台风数量和快速增强台风个数统计
Table 1. Number distribution of typhoons with different peak intensity categories and RI over the period 1949—2020
峰值级别 台风数 快速增强台风个数 比例（%） 超强台风 428 403 94.2 强台风 335 258 77.0 台风 414 210 50.7 强热带风暴 450 40 8.9 热带风暴 314 0 0.0 总计 1941 911 46.9 
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表 2 台风快速增强爆发时850和200 hPa风场分量 （u、v ） 8个特征向量的方差和累计方差贡献率
Table 2. Variance contributions and cumulative variance contributions of the first 8 eigenvectors of the u- and v-components at 850 and 200 hPa at the RI onset
贡献率（%） 特征向量 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 方差 56.2 8.0 4.0 3.8 3.1 2.0 1.4 1.3 累计方差 56.2 64.2 68.2 72.0 75.1 77.1 78.5 79.8
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