Different ENSO impacts on early and late winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China and possible mechanisms
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摘要: 基于中国国家气象信息中心提供的中国第一代全球大气和陆面再分析产品（CRA）的逐日气温资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）重建的逐月海表温度资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）提供的大气环流再分析资料，研究了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）对中国东部前、后冬天气尺度气温变率的影响及其物理机制。结果表明，ENSO对中国东部天气尺度气温变率的影响在前、后冬存在显著差异。ENSO对前冬中国东部天气尺度气温变率影响较弱，后冬则显著增强。后冬时期，ENSO与长江中下游地区天气尺度气温变率呈现显著正相关，即厄尔尼诺年后冬天气尺度气温变率增强，气温波动幅度增大；拉尼娜年后冬天气尺度气温变率减弱，气温变化较为平缓。ENSO在后冬可通过影响与欧亚大陆上空南北温度梯度相关的大气斜压性调节下游东亚地区大气环流的天气尺度变率，进而影响天气尺度气温变率。厄尔尼诺年后冬，南北温度梯度大，大气斜压性较强，经向风活跃，冷空气活动较为频繁，天气尺度气温变率增大；拉尼娜年后冬，异常情况与之大致相反。在前冬ENSO对欧亚大陆上空南北梯度即大气斜压性影响较小，因而对中国东部天气尺度气温变率的影响也较弱。本研究的成果丰富了对ENSO影响中国气温变率的理解，有利于中国冬季气温季节预测水平的提升。Abstract: Based on daily mean air temperature data from the first-generation global atmosphere reanalysis product (CRA) of China, the reconstructed monthly sea surface temperature data from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) atmospheric circulation reanalysis data, the present study investigates influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the early and late winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China and possible mechanisms. It is revealed that the ENSO impacts differ remarkably between early and late winter. That is, the synoptic-scale air temperature response to ENSO over eastern China is weak in early winter but strong in late winter. In late winter, there is a significant positive correlation between ENSO and the synoptic temperature variability in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river of eastern China. It suggests that the synoptic-scale air temperature variability and temperature fluctuation in late winters of El Niño (La Niña) years are usually stronger (weaker) than that in normal years. In late winter, ENSO can modulate the atmospheric baroclinicity by changing the meridional temperature gradient in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, which affects the synoptic-scale variation of atmospheric circulation in East Asia and subsequently affects the synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China. Specifically, in late winters of El Niño years, the north-south temperature gradient is larger and the corresponding atmospheric baroclinicity is stronger, which could lead to more active meridional wind activities and more frequent cold air activities. Roughly opposite mechanisms apply during late winters of La Niña years. However, in early winter, ENSO has a weak influence on the meridional temperature gradient in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, and thus exhibits minor effects on the synoptic-scale temperature variability over eastern China. The results can enrich our understanding of the ENSO impact on air temperature variability in China, and provide references for improving seasonal prediction of wintertime air temperature over China.
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Key words:
- ENSO /
- Synoptic-scale air temperature variability /
- Early winter /
- Late winter
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图 1 中国东部地区 （20°—45°N，110°—120°E）区域平均的冬季天气尺度气温变率与同期海温相关系数空间分布 （黑点表示通过90%信度的检验）
Figure 1. Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficient between sea surface temperature anomalies and the area-averaged winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China（20°—45°N，110°—120°E）（black dots indi cate values exceeding the 90% confidence level）
图 2 Nino3.4指数回归的中国冬季天气尺度气温变率异常 （单位：（℃）²，黑点表示通过90%信度的检验）
Figure 2. Winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability anomalies regressed onto the winter Nino3.4 index （unit：（℃）²，black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level）
图 3 前 （a）、后 （b） 冬ENSO冷、暖位相下天气尺度气温变率的异常合成差值场 （厄尔尼诺减去拉尼娜）（单位：（℃）²，黑点区表示通过90%信度检验）
Figure 3. Differences between composite anomalies of synoptic-scale air temperature variability during （a） early winters and （b） late winters of El Niño and La Niña years （El Niño minus La Niña） （unit: （℃）²，black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level）
图 4 前 （a）、后 （b） 冬中国东部地区 （25°—35°N，110°—120°E）区域平均天气尺度气温变率与Nino3.4指数的时间序列
Figure 4. Time series of area-averaged synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China （25°—35°N，110°—120°E）and the Nino3.4 index during （a） early and （b） late winter
图 5 前 （a）、后 （b） 冬时期Nino3.4指数回归的中国东部地区500 hPa天气尺度经向风变率异常 （单位：（m/s）²，黑点区表示通过90%信度检验）
Figure 5. 500 hPa synoptic-scale meridional wind variability anomalies regressed onto the winter Nino3.4 index over eastern China during （a） early winter and （b） late winter （unit：（m/s）²，black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level）
图 6 前 （a）、后 （b） 冬Nino3.4指数回归的200 hPa天气尺度位势高度变率异常 （单位：dagpm²，黑点区表示通过90%信度检验）
Figure 6. 200 hPa synoptic-scale geopotential height variance anomalies regrssed onto the winter Nino3.4 index during （a） early winter and （b） late winter （unit：dagpm²，black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level）
图 7 Nino3.4指数回归的前 （a）、后 （b） 冬欧亚大陆 （80°—110°E） 纬向平均的温度异常 （单位：℃，黑点区表示通过90%信度检验）
Figure 7. Zonal mean temperature anomalies （80°—110°E） regressed onto the winter Nino3.4 index over Eurasia during （a） early winter and （b） late winter （unit：℃， black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level）
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