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ENSO对中国东部前后冬天气尺度气温变率的不同影响及其可能机制

吴迪 张文君 耿新 薛奥运 胡苏琼

吴迪,张文君,耿新,薛奥运,胡苏琼. 2023. ENSO对中国东部前后冬天气尺度气温变率的不同影响及其可能机制. 气象学报,81(5):717-726 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220186
引用本文: 吴迪,张文君,耿新,薛奥运,胡苏琼. 2023. ENSO对中国东部前后冬天气尺度气温变率的不同影响及其可能机制. 气象学报,81(5):717-726 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220186
Wu Di, Zhang Wenjun, Geng Xin, Xue Aoyun, Hu Suqiong. 2023. Different ENSO impacts on early and late winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China and possible mechanisms. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 81(5):717-726 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220186
Citation: Wu Di, Zhang Wenjun, Geng Xin, Xue Aoyun, Hu Suqiong. 2023. Different ENSO impacts on early and late winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China and possible mechanisms. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 81(5):717-726 doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220186

ENSO对中国东部前后冬天气尺度气温变率的不同影响及其可能机制

doi: 10.11676/qxxb2023.20220186
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(42125501)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    吴迪,从事海-气相互作用研究。E-mail:376995408@qq.com

    通讯作者:

    张文君,从事 ENSO 机理及海-气相互作用等研究。E-mail:zhangwj@nuist.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: P46

Different ENSO impacts on early and late winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China and possible mechanisms

  • 摘要: 基于中国国家气象信息中心提供的中国第一代全球大气和陆面再分析产品(CRA)的逐日气温资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)重建的逐月海表温度资料以及美国国家环境预报中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)提供的大气环流再分析资料,研究了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)对中国东部前、后冬天气尺度气温变率的影响及其物理机制。结果表明,ENSO对中国东部天气尺度气温变率的影响在前、后冬存在显著差异。ENSO对前冬中国东部天气尺度气温变率影响较弱,后冬则显著增强。后冬时期,ENSO与长江中下游地区天气尺度气温变率呈现显著正相关,即厄尔尼诺年后冬天气尺度气温变率增强,气温波动幅度增大;拉尼娜年后冬天气尺度气温变率减弱,气温变化较为平缓。ENSO在后冬可通过影响与欧亚大陆上空南北温度梯度相关的大气斜压性调节下游东亚地区大气环流的天气尺度变率,进而影响天气尺度气温变率。厄尔尼诺年后冬,南北温度梯度大,大气斜压性较强,经向风活跃,冷空气活动较为频繁,天气尺度气温变率增大;拉尼娜年后冬,异常情况与之大致相反。在前冬ENSO对欧亚大陆上空南北梯度即大气斜压性影响较小,因而对中国东部天气尺度气温变率的影响也较弱。本研究的成果丰富了对ENSO影响中国气温变率的理解,有利于中国冬季气温季节预测水平的提升。

     

  • 图 1  中国东部地区 (20°—45°N,110°—120°E)区域平均的冬季天气尺度气温变率与同期海温相关系数空间分布 (黑点表示通过90%信度的检验)

    Figure 1.  Spatial distribution of the correlation coefficient between sea surface temperature anomalies and the area-averaged winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China(20°—45°N,110°—120°E)(black dots indi cate values exceeding the 90% confidence level)

    图 2  Nino3.4指数回归的中国冬季天气尺度气温变率异常 (单位:(℃)²,黑点表示通过90%信度的检验)

    Figure 2.  Winter synoptic-scale air temperature variability anomalies regressed onto the winter Nino3.4 index (unit:(℃)²,black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level)

    图 3  前 (a)、后 (b) 冬ENSO冷、暖位相下天气尺度气温变率的异常合成差值场 (厄尔尼诺减去拉尼娜)(单位:(℃)²,黑点区表示通过90%信度检验)

    Figure 3.  Differences between composite anomalies of synoptic-scale air temperature variability during (a) early winters and (b) late winters of El Niño and La Niña years (El Niño minus La Niña) (unit: (℃)²,black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level)

    图 4  前 (a)、后 (b) 冬中国东部地区 (25°—35°N,110°—120°E)区域平均天气尺度气温变率与Nino3.4指数的时间序列

    Figure 4.  Time series of area-averaged synoptic-scale air temperature variability over eastern China (25°—35°N,110°—120°E)and the Nino3.4 index during (a) early and (b) late winter

    图 5  前 (a)、后 (b) 冬时期Nino3.4指数回归的中国东部地区500 hPa天气尺度经向风变率异常 (单位:(m/s)²,黑点区表示通过90%信度检验)

    Figure 5.  500 hPa synoptic-scale meridional wind variability anomalies regressed onto the winter Nino3.4 index over eastern China during (a) early winter and (b) late winter (unit:(m/s)²,black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level)

    图 6  前 (a)、后 (b) 冬Nino3.4指数回归的200 hPa天气尺度位势高度变率异常 (单位:dagpm²,黑点区表示通过90%信度检验)

    Figure 6.  200 hPa synoptic-scale geopotential height variance anomalies regrssed onto the winter Nino3.4 index during (a) early winter and (b) late winter (unit:dagpm²,black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level)

    图 7  Nino3.4指数回归的前 (a)、后 (b) 冬欧亚大陆 (80°—110°E) 纬向平均的温度异常 (单位:℃,黑点区表示通过90%信度检验)

    Figure 7.  Zonal mean temperature anomalies (80°—110°E) regressed onto the winter Nino3.4 index over Eurasia during (a) early winter and (b) late winter (unit:℃, black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level)

    图 8  前 (a)、后 (b) 冬Nino3.4指数回归的700 hPa天气尺度温度异常 (单位:℃,黑点区表示通过90%信度检验)

    Figure 8.  700 hPa horizontal temperature anomalies regressed onto the winter Nino3.4 index during (a) early winter and (b) late winter (unit:℃,black dots indicate values exceeding the 90% confidence level)

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  • 收稿日期:  2022-11-01
  • 修回日期:  2023-05-22
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-05-24

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